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| Global Lenses |
India and Pakistan swelter in a record-breaking heatwave. Millions are in danger of the intense temperature as everyone tries to keep cool. How much of a climate change is to blame? Scientists have long warned that climate change, such as heatwaves, flooding, and storms will lead to more severe weather. Many point to record-breaking heat waves as proof in India and Pakistan. The hottest March for Indians in 122 years. Many cities sweltered above 40 degrees. Though Heat waves are common in the region, they usually do not start until May or June. Meteorologists in Pakistan say the temperature is at least 8 degrees on average. It can increase in some areas of Sindh province by 48 degrees next week.
Intense heat has increased the demand for electricity in both countries as a result of power outages. The Indian government canceled 600 passenger train services to prefer fuel shipments. The electric outage is expected at hospitals in Delhi. The United Nations intergovernmental panel on climate change says in India it is essential to cutting greenhouse gases to survive the rapid weather events. Last year, at the 26th conference in Glasgow, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, promised to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070. Along with China, India was accused of watering down the promise of a final agreement to phase out coal plants.
Record-breaking heatwave:
There is no way to escape the heat waves, there is no easy way to adapt to it and it covers a large area. For the Indo-Pakistan region, it extends from northwestern Pakistan to northwestern India, to Rajasthan to Gujarat; to Central and North India, to the parts of southeastern and eastern Indian states like Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. This is a large region sloping from Pakistan covered by these heatwaves. The distinguishing feature of this heatwave is that it has been here for a long time. We see that with global warming, not only the frequency of sequence but also intensity, duration, and the area covered by these heatwaves are increasing. If you look at the data from the Indian Web Department, the last March of 2022 was the hottest year on record for India in the last 122 years and April is not far behind. It shows similar signatures with some warmer temperatures. (Matthew R.)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report found that heatwaves globally have become more intense and more frequent holding human activities responsible for it.
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Who is to blame?
If each event is to be isolated from global warming, it may require in-depth research and attribution. But we have a clear signal for the Indo-Pak region. The data, statistics, and our research from the Ministry of Earth Science clearly show It. It shows a clear trend in the intensity, frequency, and duration of these heat waves attributed to global warming. (Matthew R.) In terms of attribution, various climate scientists and researchers have pointed to a very clear sign of climate change. The heatwave that India is currently experiencing and the fact that it is stagnant very frequent at the moment vindicate its reality. India or this region is not a country or a region of deniers because it has a very living experience. Talk to anyone on the street, one will say that one has not seen such temperatures in the months of March and April. We need to act now. India is at 1.1°C. If we continue our current emission rate, we will see 3.5°C by the end of the century. (Chandrasekhar A.)
Power shortages?
What I really want to focus on is the effects of the heatwave on the power sector. India is facing a huge shortage of power and it is a combination of many factors. Undoubtedly the power sector is heavily dependent on coal, there are various reasons for the surprising shortage such as increased demand due to heatwaves, disruption of national and international supply, policy issues, and non-payment of dues by electricity distribution companies. Therefore, they are not able to afford coal. The heatwaves and the March and April temperatures have basically broken all records. This, with the economy opening up in the aftermath of the pandemic, has certainly increased demand much more than previously seen. Demand is growing at the fastest rate in almost four decades. This has limited the supply capacity of power plants. Coal production has also been disrupted due to international and domestic reasons. Internationally, fluctuations in the price of coal have been really high. Even last year, almost in September and October, India experienced another power shortage due to disruption in domestic and international power supply. Export restrictions imposed by countries such as Indonesia last year and in February this year also caused international supply disruptions. (Joshi M.)
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Government measures:
One of the first things the government did was to lift the import ban. This was placed to reduce imports in December and keep them at a minimum for essential commodities. It has been reversed. However, skyrocketing international coal prices have become a challenge. States are instructed to try to increase the availability of coal. They have also been asked to look for a long-term supply of fuel internationally and find the best possible deal where it is available. But these are very short-term measures. From a long-term perspective, there is a strong case and rationale for working to move away from coal, reduce dependence on it, and invest more in clean energy sources. (Joshi M.)
India is shifting towards clean energy with an ambitious goal announced by the Prime Minister to achieve 40% of its installed power from non-fossil fuels by 2030.
Global climate commitments:
We have come a long way from where we were when it came to solar, power, or clean energy. But like any other country, India has made a big commitment and we need to do something stronger in this way. I would say that no country, be it the United States, Europe, or other countries like China, has enough commitments to keep the temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2040 or below 2 degrees Celsius by 2060. Globally, we need to work together to increase our commitment and investment in green energy so that we can reduce carbon dioxide emissions. And that these heatwaves and global temperatures may not intensify further because what we are seeing thus far is a reaction to one degree Celsius. When we see that up to two degrees Celsius, we can't even imagine heat waves, floods, and storms in the near future in the next two decades. Whether it is a heatwave or some other severe weather event, the reaction is due to the emission of carbon dioxide. It doesn't matter who emits it; be it India, China, the USA, or Europe, its effect is felt everywhere. Carbon emissions trap solar energy and we will have its effects everywhere. We need global action and commitment to reducing these carbon emissions. (Matthew R.)
Government measures:
One of the first things the government did was to lift the import ban. This was placed to reduce imports in December and keep them at a minimum for essential commodities. It has been reversed. However, skyrocketing international coal prices have become a challenge. States are instructed to try to increase the availability of coal. They have also been asked to look for a long-term supply of fuel internationally and find the best possible deal where it is available. But these are very short-term measures. From a long-term perspective, there is a strong case and rationale for working to move away from coal, reduce dependence on it, and invest more in clean energy sources. (Joshi M.)
India is shifting towards clean energy with an ambitious goal announced by the Prime Minister to achieve 40% of its installed power from non-fossil fuels by 2030.
Global climate commitments:
We have come a long way from where we were when it came to solar, power, or clean energy. But like any other country, India has made a big commitment and we need to do something stronger in this way. I would say that no country, be it the United States, Europe, or other countries like China, has enough commitments to keep the temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2040 or below 2 degrees Celsius by 2060. Globally, we need to work together to increase our commitment and investment in green energy so that we can reduce carbon dioxide emissions. And that these heatwaves and global temperatures may not intensify further because what we are seeing thus far is a reaction to one degree Celsius. When we see that up to two degrees Celsius, we can't even imagine heat waves, floods, and storms in the near future in the next two decades. Whether it is a heatwave or some other severe weather event, the reaction is due to the emission of carbon dioxide. It doesn't matter who emits it; be it India, China, the USA, or Europe, its effect is felt everywhere. Carbon emissions trap solar energy and we will have its effects everywhere. We need global action and commitment to reducing these carbon emissions. (Matthew R.)
Responsibility factor:
India is paying the price for excesses. In terms of historical responsibility, the big emitters, the delinquents, are not paying their due share. There is a long list that they may promise at the CoP. Now the war in Ukraine has really exposed the Western world's dependence on fossil fuels. At the same time, we are looking at India which has an incredibly ambitious commitment to its people. But at the same time, over the last nine years, environmental deregulation in India has become widespread, and more and more coal mines have been put on the auction block. Many of the coal mining districts are among the hottest in the area. Looking at Vardhan, Chanderpur, and Maharashtra which are among the highest temperatures. These places are providing coal to keep the country's lights and air conditioners on and experiencing the worst consequences of this environmental justice.
All the policies that I have focused on for many years are based on the lack of consent and consultation of the local communities, especially the local communities that live in and around these mines. Directly impacted People are not being consulted, nor given a chance, a voice to be heard or to act on their consent. Those people have seen rollbacks in the rules about consulting and getting people's consent. (Chandrasekhar A.)
According to the International Energy Agency, India, with a population of over 1.3 billion, will have more energy needs than any other country in the next 20 years.
Future course:
The future is primarily looking at 450 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030. If that goal is met, we're basically looking at anywhere between 60 and 65 percent of Indian power generation will be non-fossil based. India is also committed to tackling coal. The current situation and the fluctuations that we are seeing in the coal market in terms of both price and supply disruption, make it even a strong case not only from the point of view of energy security but also from India's various growth and development goals, Ability to invest heavily and rapidly in renewable resources. Non- renewables are cheaper than most coal-fired power generation. Much needs to be done, especially in this decade, to try to move away from coal and reduce our dependence. (Joshi M.)
India is paying the price for excesses. In terms of historical responsibility, the big emitters, the delinquents, are not paying their due share. There is a long list that they may promise at the CoP. Now the war in Ukraine has really exposed the Western world's dependence on fossil fuels. At the same time, we are looking at India which has an incredibly ambitious commitment to its people. But at the same time, over the last nine years, environmental deregulation in India has become widespread, and more and more coal mines have been put on the auction block. Many of the coal mining districts are among the hottest in the area. Looking at Vardhan, Chanderpur, and Maharashtra which are among the highest temperatures. These places are providing coal to keep the country's lights and air conditioners on and experiencing the worst consequences of this environmental justice.
All the policies that I have focused on for many years are based on the lack of consent and consultation of the local communities, especially the local communities that live in and around these mines. Directly impacted People are not being consulted, nor given a chance, a voice to be heard or to act on their consent. Those people have seen rollbacks in the rules about consulting and getting people's consent. (Chandrasekhar A.)
According to the International Energy Agency, India, with a population of over 1.3 billion, will have more energy needs than any other country in the next 20 years.
Future course:
The future is primarily looking at 450 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030. If that goal is met, we're basically looking at anywhere between 60 and 65 percent of Indian power generation will be non-fossil based. India is also committed to tackling coal. The current situation and the fluctuations that we are seeing in the coal market in terms of both price and supply disruption, make it even a strong case not only from the point of view of energy security but also from India's various growth and development goals, Ability to invest heavily and rapidly in renewable resources. Non- renewables are cheaper than most coal-fired power generation. Much needs to be done, especially in this decade, to try to move away from coal and reduce our dependence. (Joshi M.)
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Mitigation is the most important factor here because wherever you emit carbon, the effect is felt mostly in the tropics, especially in vulnerable regions like South Asia. One way to work on this is on local adaptations and how we work on local adaptations for early warning systems. If you look at the deaths caused by heatwaves over the last several decades, the death toll has increased. But if you look at the last few years since 2017, the death rate in the India-Pakistan region has come down as per the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization, WMO. One reason for this is that they have incorporated early warning systems and heatwave forecasts that have been frequent since 2017 or 2015 and included them in national disaster response plans. Some states have a heat action plan for March, April, May, or early June where they have policies to issue alerts on heatwaves and temperature forecasts. It comes three or five days before the heat waves, but we shouldn't rely on it. Of course, the predictions have improved, but there is not much we can do in three or four days. We can't wait for the forecast to come every year and act accordingly for the heatwaves as many other things are at stake. For example, if you do not have policies, the number of working hours runs out. Many farmers also lose their working hours and agriculture when droughts and heat waves co-occur. (Matthew R.)
In India, heat waves are not currently listed as a disaster, which means that many states cannot get central relief funds, especially in heat-affected areas. With only a few conditions, states can declare them as local disasters in terms of adapting to them or setting up such plans. It is being acknowledged that there are states and cities that have their own heat action plans, but these are also cities that are seeing themselves as deforested. Mumbai is an example of an urban heat island, the impact is strong because there is so much built-up area and so little green space. Thus, people have few options. They can protect themselves 24 hours a day only with electricity and if they live in high altitudes. (Chandrasekhar A.)
These are not anomalies. This is going to happen again and again, so it is important for us to see how we can try and focus on both mitigation and adaptation. (Joshi M.)
Mitigation is the most important factor here because wherever you emit carbon, the effect is felt mostly in the tropics, especially in vulnerable regions like South Asia. One way to work on this is on local adaptations and how we work on local adaptations for early warning systems. If you look at the deaths caused by heatwaves over the last several decades, the death toll has increased. But if you look at the last few years since 2017, the death rate in the India-Pakistan region has come down as per the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization, WMO. One reason for this is that they have incorporated early warning systems and heatwave forecasts that have been frequent since 2017 or 2015 and included them in national disaster response plans. Some states have a heat action plan for March, April, May, or early June where they have policies to issue alerts on heatwaves and temperature forecasts. It comes three or five days before the heat waves, but we shouldn't rely on it. Of course, the predictions have improved, but there is not much we can do in three or four days. We can't wait for the forecast to come every year and act accordingly for the heatwaves as many other things are at stake. For example, if you do not have policies, the number of working hours runs out. Many farmers also lose their working hours and agriculture when droughts and heat waves co-occur. (Matthew R.)
In India, heat waves are not currently listed as a disaster, which means that many states cannot get central relief funds, especially in heat-affected areas. With only a few conditions, states can declare them as local disasters in terms of adapting to them or setting up such plans. It is being acknowledged that there are states and cities that have their own heat action plans, but these are also cities that are seeing themselves as deforested. Mumbai is an example of an urban heat island, the impact is strong because there is so much built-up area and so little green space. Thus, people have few options. They can protect themselves 24 hours a day only with electricity and if they live in high altitudes. (Chandrasekhar A.)
These are not anomalies. This is going to happen again and again, so it is important for us to see how we can try and focus on both mitigation and adaptation. (Joshi M.)
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Roxy Matthew Cole, a Climate Scientist, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Madhura Joshi,
a Senior Associate at the Climate Change Think Tank,E3G
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