ISIL attacks and bombings in Afghanistan kill at least 18. Most of them are minority Shia Muslims. Can the Taliban government overcome security threats from ISIS and other armed groups?
The Afghan Taliban say they have
captured the so-called mastermind of the mosque bombing. Police say he is a
senior ISIS operative suspected of helping to kill at least 12 people in the
northern city of Mazari Sharif on Thursday. The militant group has claimed at
least two attacks in Afghanistan, highlighting security challenges for the
Taliban since returning to power last August. ISIL detonates remote-controlled
bombs during Asr prayers. It often targets the Shia Muslim minority.
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The situation in Afghanistan is
very critical. ISIS also says it was behind a bus bombing in the town of Kunduz
on Thursday that killed at least four Taliban mechanics. On Tuesday,
schoolchildren, mostly from the Hazara Shia Muslim community, were targeted.
Two bomb blasts near the capital, Kabul, have killed at least six people and
injured 25 others.
A United Nations report last month
said about 400 civilians had been killed in attacks since the Taliban took over
last year. ISIS has been blamed for more than 80 percent of the bombings.
The situation in Afghanistan:
In fact, the Taliban have been
largely in their comfort zone since the fall of Kabul on August 15. They do not
realize that there are still huge threats to the security of the country. ISIS
is not a challenge in recent days after the fall of Kabul, but it has been a
security challenge for many years. There have been sporadic bombings and
attacks since 2013, and from 2016, it gained momentum. Now the recent events
which are very severe have caused immense despondency and anger among the
common Afghans and have caused huge damage. Therefore, it is going to be a critical challenge for the Taliban due to the lack of regional cooperation in
counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism capabilities. All these incapabilities
will create more challenges for the Taliban to overcome this threat. (Zaland
F.)
Read more: Afghanistan on the verge of collapse: Way out?
Regional impact of the security
situation in Afghanistan, specifically for Pakistan:
It is a serious concern and has been there since the Taliban took power, but the situation has been deteriorating since the Taliban took over in August last year. This is not only a concern for Pakistan but it is also a matter of concern for Iran. There is broader concern for the whole region as well as for other countries. The Taliban, although made many promises during the Afghan peace process that they would gain control of their borders, with the recent resurgence of ISIS attacks at home, Pakistan says have lost control over its borders and also within its territory. (Akhtar R.)
We've gone through a winter where
we've been very concerned about helping people. We are currently seeing signals of growing insecurity. Last week's attack on the Abdul Rahim Shaheed Boys
School was obviously shocking and had an impact on education, especially if
schools are targeted in this way. We are not seeing any significant results of
what we are trying to do at the moment, and if things go awry, there are clear
concerns for the future. Our main concern at the moment is the delivery of
humanitarian aid and then an environment where development aid could enter the
country. We also need to look at the economic catastrophe that has occurred in
the last few months and what we can do about it. If insecurity affects the
resumption of development aid to Afghanistan, it will be a matter of great
concern. (Turner N.)
Taliban government and security?
Security has improved because
before August 15 we were in a big war as 34 provinces and more than 400
districts were at war. There were bombings by US troops and the previous
government and Taliban carried out attacks, targeted killings, and ambushes.
Everything was at its peak. The number of incidents has dropped significantly,
but the problem is the recent wave of attacks on mosques, schools, and large
gatherings, particularly, on the Shia minority. There are growing concerns that
Afghanistan is entering another phase of the war. Secondly, it is the first
spring in the summer since the Taliban took over. In Afghanistan, usually
every spring, for the last 20 years, started with fighting and attacks. This
first spring of Taliban occupation of Kabul started with such blasts. It also
raises the concern that we are heading towards insecurity and another war and
instability. (Zaland F.)
Pak-Afghanistan relations:
Pakistan has not officially acknowledged that Pakistan carried out the attacks. No official statement has been issued. We are in an ugly phase right now. Pakistan's expectations from the Taliban that the TTP would be disbanded and that Afghan territory would not be used by them during the Taliban regime were not fulfilled. That is the real reason behind the deteriorating relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Recently, I have some statistics about the stimulus that TTP has been experimenting with since August last year. The TTP has claimed responsibility for 256 attacks in which Pakistani security forces personnel have been killed, and hundreds more have been killed this month alone. Another thing is that Pakistan is erecting a fence on its border. The problem is that the Taliban have not given Pakistan any firm commitment that fencing the border is acceptable. Counter-terrorism is still Pakistan's top priority when it comes to fencing the border. If the Taliban did not take concrete steps to stop the TTP from using its soil against Pakistan, perhaps Pakistan will go to any extent. (Akhtar R.)
The Norwegian Refugee Council said
last month that the economic crisis since August 2021 had intensified the
humanitarian crisis.
24 million people are at risk,
which is at least half the population of Afghanistan. Of these, we are focusing
on the 9 million who are at risk of starvation. The figures are shocking,
citing UNDP reports which show that by mid-2022, 97% of people will be living in poverty. The situation in Afghanistan was bad before. The poverty rate was
close to 75%, but it is likely to get close to 100%, the state of complete
economic collapse. There have been reports from families that they are actually
reducing their meals. I have seen people cooking on plastic and also heard that
children are sent to work or to beg in dangerous conditions and girls are forced
to marry at an early age. So, all of these things are signals of an economic
catastrophe. Humanitarians can fill this gap in the short term, but we really
need to restart the economy. The World Bank is currently holding its spring
meetings and is talking about the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund and it
is really important that the money flows and must be released properly so that
the wider economy can recover.
Restrictions and distributions of
resources:
We have solved this problem in a
short term in what is called the UN corridor which is helping us to bring money
into the country. The money is brought in cash and then deposited in the
bank and it was usable. The problems revolve around the central bank which is
not yet functioning and also the commercial banking system and the private
banking international financial system which are still at risk and cannot
function properly to raise money. Afghan businesses are also facing difficulty
in accessing credit and general banking procedures. Some progress has been
made. We solve problems in the short
term, but long-term problems remain intact. (Turner N.)
I am delighted to see that Norway
has taken the lead and broken some impasse the international community was
facing. Although Norway has been widely criticized for its links to the Taliban
through reports, at least they have the courage to go there and do something
about the humanitarian crisis. The situation is definitely critical and will
continue to be difficult. My only concern about the regional security situation
is that there is a lot of speculation that ISIS is attacking Hazara or that it
is in the Taliban's interest to amplify chaos because it draws international
attention to the Taliban. And they can tell the international community that they have no control over the situation and thus, they need help in curbing terrorism. So,
first, it was humanitarian aid and then things are slowly moving toward
drawing attention to counter-terrorism assistance. (Akhtar R.)
Question of Recognition?
In fact, the Taliban expected to
gain international recognition as soon as they returned to power. They did
their best. They traveled around the world and visited Europe. They were in
Norway to persuade Europeans and communicated with several Islamic
countries and American delegates. They thought it would be an easy task, but it
seemed difficult to overcome. The situation regarding the rights of women is
not going to be addressed with the recent decision on girls' schools, and there
is no inclusivity in the monopoly of power. If the Taliban are as insecure as
anyone else, they are losing public opinion about themselves. These are the
crucial challenges that have somehow put the Taliban in difficulty getting international recognition. Locally, they face many problems, not just
humanitarian aid, but insecurity, domestic strife, and contraction among
different sects and different organizations and races. (Zaland F.)
Increasing tensions between
Afghanistan and Pakistan?
Taking TTP issue forward, we must
not forget that Pakistan officially had a strategy of good Taliban and bad
Taliban. Now those good Taliban and bad Taliban are somehow emerging against
the interest of Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan is shifting its internal
conflicts, issues, and strategy toward Afghanistan and somehow creating a
regional problem for the Taliban which was bittering. From the beginning, the
Taliban thought that they might soon start a railway project from TAPI and CASA-1000,
but now all this seems like a dream, which may not be fulfilled by the Taliban
government.
Terrorism and regional response:
First of all, how is it beneficial for Pakistan to have a troubled and unstable western border where its eastern border is already intense with India? The paradox is how the interest of TAPI and CASA and China in Afghanistan to expand CPEC works in Pakistan's interest by destabilizing Afghanistan if it wants economic security to be its future and its role in uniting the region? So, Pakistan is not a facilitator. There are many concerns as far as ISIS is concerned, but I do not see many countries in the region coming out and putting pressure on the Taliban. Much is happening in the region regarding Russia and Ukraine and how this situation is evolving. So far, I have yet to see anyone other than Pakistan put pressure on the Taliban to reduce ISIL's activities before it spills over to other areas. God forbid, we should not wait for a massive attack to kill hundreds of civilians. So, I hope the region will wake up and pressurize the Taliban. Pakistan itself should draw some red lines with the Taliban. TTP is one of them. Border fencing is another, and the recognition of an international border which requires determination on the part of the Taliban. Pakistan needs to define these red lines and boundaries very clearly without any uncertainty. (Akhtar R.)
Faiz Zaland, Executive Director of the
Democratic Peace and Development Think Tank
Rabia Akhtar, Director of the
Centre for Security Strategy and Policy Research at the University Of Lahore.
Neil Turner, Country Director in Afghanistan
for the Norwegian Refugee Council.
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