Russia-Ukraine war: A new phase and Implications

Global Lenses

Russia has renewed operations in eastern Ukraine. A lot of people are fighting for Donbas, but what does this new phase mean for the big conflict, and what is the human cost? Russian forces have invaded neighboring Ukraine. Conflicts have killed countless civilians and displaced millions. Now Moscow says it is shifting its focus to the east, where it has stepped up its attacks in the Donbas region. US, British, and Canadian leaders have promised to send more weapons to Ukrainian forces. Many say this is a critical stage of the conflict and could take a toll on Ukraine.

"This operation in the east of Ukraine is aimed, as was announced from the very beginning, to fully liberate the Donetsk and Lugansk republics and this operation will continue. It is beginning, I mean, another stage of this operation is beginning and I’m sure this will be a very important moment of this entire special operation." –Sergey Lavrov.

Fighting Ukrainians have been forced to flee after Russian forces attacked cities and towns. Ukraine's president says Russia will not succeed.

"The intensity of fire by Russian troops in the Kharkiv direction in the Donbas…region has increased significantly. The same as before, they consider ordinary residential housing to be normal military targets. In this war, the Russian army will forever inscribe itself in world history as perhaps the most barbaric and inhumane army in the world." –Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Ukraine says it has repulsed several Russian attacks in the east. Russia's second ultimatum to Ukrainian troops to surrender in Mariupol has passed.

"The United States and western countries are doing everything to drag out the special military operation as much as possible. The growing supplies of foreign weapons clearly signal their intention to provoke the Kyiv regime to keep fighting until the last Ukrainian." –Sergei Shoigu

The European Union is considering more sanctions on Russia.

"We call on Russia, we continue to call on Russia to stop all the illegal and illegitimate actions connected to its aggression against Ukraine, and when it comes to next round of the sanctions the EU, highest representatives the leaders of the EU, and also the representatives of the member states, are very very clear that we continue the work on further sanctions and when the time will be right, they will be announced." –Peter Stano.

So far, ceasefire calls or threats of sanctions have not stopped the war. Although Russia may fail to capture Kyiv, the war in the East is such that Russia cannot be seen losing.

Second phase?

In more or less the first week of the campaign in the south, Russia gained a lot. Crimea forces quickly seized several major Ukrainian cities in various directions, with or without resistance. But then the advance, which did not have enough reserves, came to a halt. Now the commander in charge of this initial success in the south, General Alexander Vardenkov, commander of the Southern Military District, has become the CNC of the whole operation. Since he has achieved the most from the Russian perspective, he is believed to have success in the whole operation. We'll see what he's going to do, but of course it's a slow start to the second phase right now. I would say preliminary action. (Felgenhauer P.)

Russia is not conducting an operation:

First, there is no operation, and don't call it an operation because it is a war, it is a mass execution of civilians who have nothing to do with military forces. If you want to call child abuse and such things an operation, I am very sorry for you because there is something wrong with your moral qualities. This is the mass execution of civilians, the torture of children, and the rape of women. There is no one in this world, having a heart and mind, who will consider this an operation. This is a war and the worst thing that the Russian occupiers and Nazis are doing in Ukraine. The situation in Mariupol is extremely tense. We are mainly talking about women and children and in my opinion, as a mother of children, there is no way Russian soldiers can torture and sell children. There are many babies, and mothers with newborns in Mariupol hidden in the Azovstal steel factory. We have heard that Russian soldiers have been ordered to sell them. The Russians have orders to sell children. (Yachenko H.) 

The mayor of Mariupol has said that about 20,000 civilians have been killed in Mariupol. It has not been confirmed, but it is a shocking number.

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Russia needs a face-saving story:

It seems that instead of dominating Ukraine, they want to focus on Donbas in order to have some success story. Some people think that because of the May 9 Victory Day deadline, they want to present some positive story for Russia.  Now they can only focus on Donbas, but the Ukrainians are highly experienced there. They have been at war for eight years. 

Symbolic sanctions:

The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, is visiting Kyiv today, which indicates Europe's interest in the region, but the whole issue of sanctions is symbolic in many respects. We see that the Russian economy is really suffering, but the main problem is energy. Germany, for example, relies almost half on its supplies from Russia. So the fact that they are still not talking about gas indicates that they are not very serious about it because they are worried about inflationary pressures in Europe. Further, some countries, such as Hungary, are more pro-Russian than others. So, it will be difficult for Europe to work together. Then there are other types of symbolic sanctions, such as sanctions on caviar, which is only a small part of Russian exports to Europe. Thus, Europeans show too much virtue signaling. But there is growing concern about what is really happening in Ukraine. We have seen millions of refugees fleeing to Europe. We are seeing other effects as well, for example, the unintended consequences of Putin's behavior such as both Sweden and Finland seem to be willing to join NATO. (Fallon T.)

The significance of the Donetsk and Luhansk:

Russia has been supporting pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk since 2014. Prior to the launch of the campaign, Russia had officially recognized the independence of the two states. In fact, the official reason for going to Ukraine was to defend them and to extend their territory to the pre-war administrative regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. The important thing is that Russia is in a very serious situation and will do its best to get out of it. Russia and Ukraine are currently in mid-season. The winter campaign is over and the summer campaign hasn't started. The ground is still a little wet and there was heavy rain. That way, progress will actually be slower because they still have to rely on paved roads that are too narrow in Donbas. Both sides are preparing for a decisive battle in the summer campaign. (Felgenhauer P.)

What about the Ukrainian referendum:

Ukrainians were forced to hold a referendum by Russian troops who came to its land in 2014. They forced the people to hold a false referendum. Therefore, Putin's rhetoric should be avoided. It is the narrative of the Russian Nazis. Further, the Russian analyst who abovementioned the winter campaign and the summer campaign forgot to mention that there is a spring campaign also. This is a planting campaign, a campaign when Ukrainian farmers and agricultural companies plant all the food which will grow in summer and autumn. I really want to knock on hearts and minds with the fact that what the Russians are doing in Ukraine is cruel, not only to the Ukrainian people, mothers, and Ukrainian children but to the whole Arab world. They are doing terrible things. (Yachenko H.)

Read more: Sanctions regime of the West

European response:

In the fog of war, no one made any accurate predictions. I would say it's really vague. No one would predict half of what happened in Ukraine. I will not make any predictions about it. They are adding more troops to the region. We know that the Russians have a big moral problem. The Ukrainians have fought a fierce battle because it is their country and their territory. Therefore, it is very difficult to predict at this time what will happen. But to all this, the European response requires more weapons, more support, more sanctions, and more money. We see Germany dragging its heels on all this as Ukrainian President Zelensky has begged Germany for a leopard tank which showed much reluctance from the European state. A new scandal has recently erupted in Europe over SPD's relationship with Russian gas company, Gazprom. Therefore, the octopus of Russian corruption not only reaches Londongrad, which is known as a laundromat for Russian oligarchs' money. But we see it in Germany as well, Europe's largest country and strong economy. It has very close ties with Russia that the latter has refrained from imposing substantial sanctions on gas. Europe really needs to take these things seriously. They are the symbol of virtue signaling. (Fallon T)

Will Russia be held accountable?

I am sure there will be an investigation, but not currently. Moscow is vehemently rejecting it. This is the traditional position that followed the assassination of Polish officers in 1940, when the Soviet Union, along with the Communists, denied responsibility until the collapse of the Soviet Union. At the moment, Russia is going to cooperate as Putin apparently promised the Austrian chancellor that Russia would cooperate, but I don't think that's going to happen. if, In the future, I do not know, there is regime change in Moscow, then these crimes can actually be tried in court, maybe even in Moscow. But that's a matter of the future. It does not affect the situation on the ground, although it is a terrible disaster for Moscow. (Felgenhauer P.)

Future implications:

If the Russians do not lay down their arms and leave our sovereign state, things will face worst not only in Ukraine but in the whole world and also in the Arab world. Food security will be a serious problem in the Arab world as Ukraine's agriculture, food, sunflower oil, and also wheat, and other agricultural products are feeding the Arab world. Agriculture and food accounted for 42% of Ukraine's exports. If there is no agriculture from Ukraine in the Arab world this year and next, who is responsible if the prices of agricultural products escalate?  The blame should be on Russia, its army and Putin because they invaded Ukraine and did not allow the Ukranians to plant proper plants. They are unable to plant food for the whole world. Already 600 million people in the world depend on Ukrainian food. Thus, we are seeing skyrocketing food prices than ever before in the world. (Yachenko H.)

Changing Europe's landscape:

We now see that because of this conflict with Ukraine, Sweden and Finland seem to be going to demand NATO membership. Sweden and Finland may not have considered it individually, but because they were no longer afraid of Russia. They do not see the army as frightening as it used to be. They see it as incompetent and chaotic. The NATO summit is set to be held in June. Thus, by joining together, Sweden and Finland are gaining more momentum to join NATO. In a Swedish newspaper, there was a very positive editorial from the editorial board supporting Sweden's NATO membership, which is indeed a watershed moment because Sweden has been a neutral country for 200 years. So, that would change Europe's security landscape, and Russia has really got its hands dirty. It has changed Europe's strategic landscape in a way it never intended. (Fallon T.)

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Pavel Felgenhauer, Defense and Military Analyst for Novaya Gazeta, an Independent Newspaper

Halyna Yachenko, a Member of the Ukrainian Parliament and Secretary of the National Presidential Council.

Theresa Fallon, Director of the Center for Russia Europe Asia studies.