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| Credit:ABC |
Climate change is accelerating rapidly which is evident from increasing temperature to rising seawater levels, from the rapidly extinction of species to endangering the life of Homo sapiens. However, climate change, apart from bringing a natural catastrophe, increases the prospects of war among nations. Climate change will impact geopolitics around the world. It will potentially increase the chances of conflict between major powers. In this article, we will try to explore reasons which may play a critical role in erupting conflicts among states.
Climate change and geopolitics:
Climate change is bound to change the geopolitics of the world. The older powers may replace new ones. The prime example of it is Russia. Russia may turn out to be the major power of the world due to the rapid depletion of its permafrost. If such is the case, the US will try to resist. Russia is always seen as a threat to the US western allies, which was enforced by the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and from the issue of Ukraine. Similarly, Russia is concerned about the expansion of NATO to Eastern Europe. Since the time of the Cold war, Russia remained in a security dilemma. During the cold war, on the Western side, NATO represented a desperate effort to defend indefensible Western Europe from the fully mobilized Soviet Army; while from the Soviet viewpoint, NATO was considered as a hostile military alliance. Having been invaded by the west on several occasions, including during World War II, the USSR used its newfound power to solidify its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, specifically in Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania. The Soviet leadership believed that ensuring friendly (or at least weak) neighbors on its western borders was vital to the country’s national interests. The security dilemma is still relevant, given the actions of both sides. Since climate change will make Russia a major power again, the question of Russia's accession to the Eastern European states will be important. This could lead to a confrontation between the two powers.
Read:Effects of climate change: Russia global power again?
US hegemony:
The other factor is the US hegemony. The US emerged as the only power after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1979. As time lapsed, the unipolar world order is now shaking with the emergence of other powers, especially China. The Russian-Chinese nexus strengthen their position at the global level. The US being the hegemonic state will not retreat easily. It may go to the maximum extent to preserve its position. The Russian-Chinese position will be further strengthened after it counters China's dependence on the Strait of Malacca by giving access to a new route from Russia. China has already emerged as strong competitor against the US, Climate change will further strengthen its power. The geographical changes due to the depletion of the Arctic region will increase the prospects of conflict.
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Water conflicts:
Another major source of conflict is water security. Water will lead many states to engage in conflict. Prime examples include Pakistan and India in South Asia. Climate change affects the hydrological cycle, influencing both water availability and demand. Climatic variability, several studies say, is inevitably greater in the Hindu Kush–Himalaya (HKH) mountainous region than in other parts of the world. As the alarms of water scarcity are ringing, water security is the priority of every state. China is now planning to construct a dam on the Brahmaputra which is believed to be the lifeline of India. The dam is constructed on the Medog County, which borders India. This may become the source of conflict between two historic rivals. Similarly, Pakistan and India may be at loggerheads over water issues. India being an upper river state has the advantage of controlling the water. It could use water as a bargaining tool that could start a war on water.
Climate and Social problems:
In addition, the emergence of several political parties and the enormous loss of human lives have created problems for governments that have failed to provide constitutional rights to the people. Many states can resort to the conflict to divert local people's attention in order to secure their political power. According to a US report, a war could be started against the United States by North Korea to divert the attention of its people. The cause is thought to be malaria. The floods of climate change will cause many diseases which can be fatal to the people. Poor policies of the states are highly responsible for it and thus reaction from the people is inevitable. According to the ADB, "Between 1990 and 2008, more than 7 750 million people in South Asia were affected by at least one natural disaster, resulting in approximately 230,000 events." Therefore, starting small-scale conflicts with many states would potentially be an option to avoid a local uprising.
The case of Syria is relevant here. From the start of the Syrian war, more than 220,000 people were dead; countless more wounded, and no end in sight. Since protests started in March 2011 the conflict has intensified to become one of the worst in recent decades. Until today it has caused almost half of the population to flee their homes. The direct causes of the Syrian crisis relate to popular discontent with the authoritarian regime of Bashar al-Assad. Yet, a number of experts highlight the roles of climate change, drought, and poor resource management as additional factors behind the Syrian crisis. In fact, the Syrian case offers important insights into how environmental factors can feed into popular grievances and in combination with other social factors produce widespread violence and suffering. By 2011 the droughts had left an estimated one million Syrian civilians in extreme food insecurity. This resulted in a large exodus of farmers and herders to urban areas thereby increasing competition for housing, jobs and access to services. A shock in food prices stirred nationwide unrest.
Read: We will die unnoticed: Climate change is here.
One more important factor is the migration issues. In this context, the biggest problem will be climate-induced migration. According to the York Times and by 2070, 300 million people will find themselves in extreme climates, causing millions to migrate. People from tropical and temperate regions will be forced to migrate to colder regions like Canada, Scandinavia, and Russia. The current migrant crisis has created social, economic problems in Europe, but these problems could arise in the future with more intensity. Migration crises will cause both intra-state and inter-state conflicts.
Hence, dealing with climate change issues for countries is highly pertinent to escape the large-scale conflict.
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