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| Global Climate Change |
Will climate Change be beneficial for any country? In this article, we are going to discuss a new perspective. In this article, we’ll talk about the potential benefits of climate change to Russia. Climate change is a nightmare for most countries in the world, which has given rise to the possibilities of drought, desertification, sliding, and sustainable heat waves. It is feared that by end of the century, climate change will make many regions inhabitable and unlivable. And maybe the worst migrant crisis in history will emerge. Today, Several Island Nations are worried about their very existence, for example, Indonesia is planning to shift its capital to Jakarta because there are signs of submergence. But this crisis will probably not harm all the countries of the world proportionately. The IPCC predicts that rising temperatures will be particularly harmful to temperate and tropical regions, but could create new opportunities for colder regions such as Canada, Scandinavia, Iceland, Greenland, and Russian Serbia.
As global warming worsens, the world's coldest region will become more habitable temperate zones, and prosperity will come to those countries located in those regions.
Before we discuss how Russia will become a superpower, it is important to understand the relationship between climate change and economics. Many researchers are studying the effects of climate change and its global economics. It is argued that human productivity and economic activity have a direct correlation with atmospheric temperature. The average temperature of 15 degrees celsius can assure the highest human productivity, as per the study of the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Marshall Burke of Stanford University writes that if we draw a line along the northern border of the United States and China, the economies of all areas below it will be negatively affected by climate change. His prediction is that by the end of the 21st century, the United States' per capita income could fall by about a third, and India, as a tropical country, by about 92 percent. China's future growth is likely to be less than 50%, while the economic growth of Canada, Scandinavia, Iceland, and Russia could be up to 5 times.
Indications of climate change:
The WMO claims that if the current global warming trend continues, global temperatures will rise to 3-5 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century. This is a dangerous prediction because most scientists and policymakers consider the implications of a rise above 2 degrees Celsius to be quite dangerous. Therefore, the IPCC has decided to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. According to WMO, the average seawater level rise between 2005 and 2015 was 3.6mm per year. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has claimed that the thickest ice sheet in the Arctic has shrunk by 95 percent.
From this, The major changes in climate change include rising sea levels, higher ocean temperature, abrupt change of rainfall patterns, and thorin permafrost.
Risk of food security and water crisis:
Climate change will also increase food insecurity risk, health risks, and water crises. This is because of the fact that the tropics can affect limited vector-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria in warmer temperatures. Biodiversity loss, destruction of corals, etc. are also negative effects of climate change which along with other impacts will change the economy, society, and polity of the world.
Migration crisis:
In this context, the biggest problem will be climate-induced migration. According to the York Times and by 2070, 300 million people will find themselves in extreme climates, causing millions to migrate. People from tropical and temperate regions will be forced to migrate to colder regions like Canada, Scandinavia, and Russia. The current migrant crisis has created social, economic problems in Europe, but these problems could arise in the future with more intensity.
Read:We will die unnoticed: Climate change is here.
Let’s discuss how climate change is beneficial for Russia and how it can make it a superpower again.
Russia and Climate:
For years now, experts have been saying that Moscow is planning to reap the benefits of climate change. In March 2017, President Putin acknowledged that the melting of Arctic ice is immensely beneficial for Russia. Most American powerhouses have climate change vulnerable coastal cities, while other Russian powerhouses have only three cities, Saint Petersburg Vladivostok, and Makhachkala, currently located in coastal areas. This will reduce Russia's need to invest in climate change mitigation and could boost its economy in other areas.
Hub for agricultural production:
Today there is a major transformation in the eastern half of Russia i.e. Siberia which is one of the oldest places in the world. The temperature in winter drops to -70 degrees Celsius and this region has been inhabited for centuries. Apart from this, most of the land here is permafrost i.e. it is soil that has been frozen for thousands of years and is unsuitable for agricultural activity. This could be the destination of future climate-induced migration and the center of agricultural production.
Increasing desertification and drought in the tropics and
temperate regions could create a massive food crisis. Food is considered by a
US special presidential envoy for climate, John Kerry, as a tool of global
power balancing in the future. Food insecurity induces social-political
instability as it was seen in the Arab Spring in the Middle East that Christopher B.
Barrett has mentioned in his book, “Food Security and Socio-Political
Stability.”
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In this context, Russia is already one of the largest producers of wheat, barley, and oats in the world and today 1/4 wheat already comes from Russia. So if Siberia becomes agricultural friendly then it will be a massive boost for Russia because Siberia is a 9% landmass of the world. The Russian climate ecologist, Nadezhda Tchebakova, estimates that by 2080, Russia's permafrost will be about half and suitable for agriculture. Sources say that the spring season in Siberia come in May 20 years ago, but it can be seen in April now. Today, Wild forests, swamps, and grasslands are being slowly cultivated in entire eastern Russia. This transformation will be faster and faster. And because of the climate-induced global food security crisis, Russia will have an upper hand.
Natural resources and Arctic region:
According to the US Geological Survey, 13% of the world's oil reserves and 30% of the world's natural gas are in the Arctic, located in Russia's backyard. In addition, Western Siberia has untapped reserves of gas or oil due to permafrost and technological limitations. As technological innovation will grow and permafrost will reduce, Russia will become a major producer of oil and gas reserves. Russia is already the world's second-largest natural gas producer and Europe's main natural gas exporter. Through its 12 major pipelines, it supplies natural gas to Europe which is the lifeline of Europe. At the same time, the Middle East's resources are rapidly declining. Hence, Western Siberia's resources can make it powerful in Global Geopolitics.
Read: Russia emerging power: the question of 'great power status'
Rare Earth elements:
Further, Russia has 15% rare earth elements in the world. And there are many more in Siberia and more and more massive reserves in Siberia. Rare earth elements are crucial raw materials for the electronics industry that will boost the Russian economy.
Coastline factor:
Although Russia has the largest coastline, most of its coastline remains frozen round the year. It is the reason that despite having the largest coastline, few ports, namely, Kaliningrad, Sevastopol, etc., are active. This ice-locking has always been a challenge for Russian ambitions. Further, this situation makes it vulnerable to western invasion. At the time of World War II, the Baltic had a major role in attacking the USSR, which gave German forces an upper hand. Peter the Great, the Russian ruler of the 18th century, conveyed this message to his successors that they should expand their territory westward towards the Baltic and Black sea. The situation seems to change as by the 2030s, the Arctic region will remain relatively ice-free and then Russia can open the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
How climate change will shape geopolitics is a matter of time. If this trend continues, Russia will have the strategic and economic advantage to become a world power in the future. It will be a paradigm shift in world politics due to climate change.
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