Xi and Putin
Credit: BBC


China is one of Russia's closest allies and trading partners. In recent years, strained relations with the United States and Europe have brought neighbors closer together, but Beijing has come under international pressure to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, which has outlined its stated principles of protection of sovereignty and non-interference. Russia's finance minister has suggested that China could help mitigate the effects of Western economic sanctions. One-third of Moscow's $640 billion in foreign exchange reserves are in the Chinese Yuan. The US National Security Adviser issued the warning just before meeting with China's top foreign policy adviser in Italy.

 "We have made it clear to not just Beijing, but every country in the world that if they think that they can basically bail Russia out, they can give Russia a workaround to the sanctions that we've imposed, they should have another thing coming because we will ensure that neither China nor anyone else can compensate Russia for these losses." –Jake Sulivan.

US media say Moscow has asked Beijing for military assistance in Ukraine. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has denied the allegations, calling them "disinformation".

“Recently the US has been spreading disinformation against china in regards to Ukraine time after time with sinister intentions. China’s position on Ukraine is consistent and clear and we have always played a constructive role in persuading peace and promoting talks.” Zhao Lijian—Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson.

A look at the ties between China and Russia:

The border between the two neighbors is more than 4000 km long. Their economies complement each other with energy and raw materials going to China and industrial products going to Russia. Both are united in their enmity with the United States, and their leaders often speak of their country's historical greatness. President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin announced a strategic partnership. They signed a so-called No-Limits agreement where they pledged to support each other. 

Read more: US and West VS China Russia Nexus

Could china actually help end Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

After all, today is the 19th day of the Ukrainian invasion, we have not seen China really condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As EU High Representative, Josep Borrell approached and said that China was the only country that could possibly mediate, little action was taken by China. Of course, everyone wants a diplomatic end to this catastrophe, but more importantly, the joint agreement that Putin and Xi signed just in the run-up to the Olympics on February 4, marked the relationship beyond limits. That's why some analysts see it as a Molotov-Ribbentrop non-aggression pact. Shortly afterward, Putin managed to move his troops from Russia's Far East to Ukraine. He could not have done that without the support of Chinese taste. China has economic interests with the West; with major markets in Europe and America and at the same time, it has this arrangement with Russia. It is trying to take the side of both factions. (Fallon, T.)

China’s walk on Tightrope:

China is very clear in that it has insisted on a peaceful solution. Condemning Russia over the situation in Ukraine would be a one-sided choice. We also need to acknowledge that China like Russia, and many other countries around the world, certainly face a very difficult situation in dealing with a violent and truly schizophrenic sociopathic country. If we only describe America as one person then why is Schizophrenic because it is basically unreliable. What we don't know is that every four years, there can be a 180-degree policy shift which makes it very difficult. We have seen the violent part of it in recent years, from Iraq to Afghanistan, which has caused incalculable damage and loss of life all over the world. So this is a really difficult situation, and China is playing a positive role that there could be a real diplomatic off-ramp.

It is a very difficult situation for all countries. Certainly, the United States has repeatedly denied the legitimacy of Russia's security concerns and has really made the situation worse. It seems that the United States is definitely ready to fight Russia down to the last Ukraine. Every country can play its role in this extremely unstable situation. China, as a major power, has certainly insisted on a peaceful solution. (Andy, M.)

The United States, like the rest of the world, certainly expects the members of the United Nations to play a constructive role. If China really wants to be a world power and a responsible stakeholder, then China definitely needs to step on the plate. It should be noted that Russia attacked another member of the United Nations, an independent country and a country with which China had very good relations, a country that joined the BRI in 2017.  If China plays a positive role, it will be welcomed. The Chinese will see this as an opportunistic opportunity to take advantage of the economic difficulties that the Russian government feels, as well as to compete with the United States and Europe, in order to improve its bilateral position with Russia. (Klinck, H.)

Read more: Diplomacy and Ukraine

The Stand of Beijing in Ukraine issue:

Beijing is trying to pose a very carefully cultivated ambiguity. The number one issue in their foreign policy is not to use force to change borders. Russia did so, yet it chose to ignore it - one of the main pillars of its foreign policy. They are really willing to take a lot from the Russians. In addition, a Chinese ambassador has announced that this is the best opportunity for China to buy a lot of things in Russia, as companies are leaving Russia due to sanctions. We see a long list of all the different organizations that are ready to leave Russia. China is looking at it as a great opportunity for them. In addition, we have seen that after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, it inclined more towards China and made some energy deals. They have met 38 times and described their relationship with Putin as the best in 300 years. Remember that Xi Jinping spoke to Putin after the attack, not to Ukrainian leader, Zelensky. However, China would like to transform itself into a peacemaker. Moreover, the big question now is whether Beijing will sanction some of the Russian assets held in Chinese banks. This will be the real bellwether for China's role on the international stage. (Fallon, T.)

Here are a couple of points. First, the very important concept of sovereignty that China forms is the cornerstone of its foreign policy, but some people may be mischievous or may not fully recognize the complexities of the situation in Ukraine. China can respect sovereignty while also acknowledging that when a country acts in a way that threatens its neighbors, sovereignty can be forfeited. Basically, we cannot ignore the fact that what we are seeing today is a clear violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity and national sovereignty. The Russians launched a brutal attack on the Ukrainian civilian population. The fact that Ukraine, as a sovereign state, wanted to maintain close ties with the European Union and NATO, with a president elected by the people, should not have meant that the Russians had to send about 200,000 troops killing thousands of Ukrainian civilians.

The second thing we risk falling into is a very common American binary way of thinking that there are only two sides, either you are with us or against us. What China has shown is a third way. China is saying that we hope we are with peaceful development. We hope that every country that has some stake, be it economic, political, humanitarian, will do what it can to promote a peaceful solution.  (Klinck, H.). 

In early February, the presidency and Putin signed and announced a relationship that is often referred to in the media as a quote-unquote No-Limits, a new kind of relationship. Everyone, from George Cannon to Henry Kissinger to John Mearsheimer, and the US ambassadors have said that what the US is doing in Ukraine is clearly provocative and that sooner or later such a reaction from Russia is imminent. (Andy, M.)

Read more: Sanctions regime of the West

China’s response to sanctions:

It remains to be seen how china responds to the international communities. We know that China is not helping with sanctions. So when the international community asks her to support these sanctions, it will be scale to ascertain whether she is really an international player. The fact is that the agreement was reached on February 4 and the attack that took place on the 23rd speaks volumes. Further, we also know that China began filling its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) after meeting with Putin and buying more grain and wheat. It can be concluded that the war was on its way. (Fallon, T.)

There is an unfortunate history of the enforcement of sanctions by China. The sanctions imposed by the United Nations against other countries, such as North Korea, have not been significant. So there is definitely an example for the Chinese not enforcing sanctions. What we are seeing in Europe today is what Russia has done to push more and more countries towards integration with the European Union and NATO through its actions. For example, they are doing an unprecedented job diplomatically, such as the case of Switzerland supporting Ukraine, which should serve as a parallel example for China, because in the Asia-Pacific we have seen over the years that Chinese initiatives are forcing countries to form bloc against the Chinese Aggression, assertiveness, and economic oppression. What will be necessary to stop such trends is for China to become more productive and oppose malign activities. (Klinck, H.)

China and the international community:

The international community would like to see China support international principles, UN conventions, and all these important issues, but China’s actions so far on the 19th day have proved that they are not doing so. China has actually learned a lot because of what Russia has done in Ukraine, China can see how the international community has reacted. She did not expect to see such a united West. She expected to see a divided Europe, maybe a weak NATO. But we have also seen traditionally neutral countries such as Switzerland join the sanctions on banks. And neutral countries like Sweden send lethal aid to Ukraine. So the world is changing. This is the third way for China to wake up better for what is happening. Beijing also signed an agreement guaranteeing Ukraine's sovereignty. It was a side agreement with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Therefore, the PRC is not respecting their agreement even there. The meeting in Rome will really show whether China is really going to do something. (Fallon, T.)

 

Theresa Fallon, the founder, and director of the center for Russia Europe Asia Studies (CREAS)

Andy Mok, Senior Research Fellow at the Center for China and Globalization 

Heino Klinck, a Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary Of Defense for East Asia


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