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The US president has warned China that it will suffer consequences if it helps Russian forces in Ukraine. Beijing has blamed Washington for the war and said sanctions would hurt the global economy. Thus, what is China's strategy regarding Ukraine? Will it harm its relations with the West?
It
has been almost a month since Russia invaded Ukraine and there is no sign of
easing tensions. Russian forces have targeted several areas in the past few
days, including the besieged city of Mariupol in the south. As the fighting
continues, world leaders are trying to find a diplomatic solution. US President
Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke by phone for the first time on
Friday, and Washington has been concerned about Beijing's stance on the dispute
since the war began. Chinese officials have refused to condemn the attack.
Biden warned that if China provided material assistance to Moscow, it would
have consequences, but the White House did not provide details on what could be
involved.
“We have a range of tools that could be considered and sanctions
are certainly one tool in the toolbox as they are for other countries as well. Even
if we as we have not outlined specific consequences and we'll communicate those
directly to china and of course with our European partners.”—Jen Psaki, White
House Press Secretary
Meanwhile,
China's ambassador to Ukraine has strengthened the power of the Ukrainian people in
a message that was slightly different from the official stance in Beijing.
Ukraine's state media quoted Fan Xianrong as saying that China is a friend of the
Ukrainian people. "As an ambassador, I can responsibly say that China, our country, will
forever be a good force for Ukraine economically and politically." He says, “...we
will always respect your state and build relationships based on equality and
mutual benefit.”
The Chinese readout, it quoted President Xi
Jinping as telling Biden that it was the responsibility of both countries to
reduce tensions, that fighting was not in anyone's interest, and at the same
time reiterated China's position. He also reiterated that sanctions would not
work to end the war and would only serve to damage
the global economy, which was already struggling to recover from pandemic. We
now know, on the American side, that Joe Biden insisted that there would be
material costs or consequences to materially aiding Russia's efforts to invade
Ukraine. Although the United States has not said what the outcome will be, US
officials have insisted that Russian officials have asked China for military
assistance in the form of military equipment to help it join the war, which
both Moscow and Beijing have denied. President Biden also expressed his views
on the war and pushed forward the efforts of the United States and its allies
to prevent a Russian invasion, possibly including China. However, we do not see
any indication that it has succeeded, and in fact, until the end of this call,
we did not see any sign that China's position has changed.
A phone call between global leaders:
It
was an important call. If you read the readout of the call, it makes three
points: First, the two presidents thought the call was constructive. The second
important point is that the two presidents will instruct their people to take
concrete steps to ensure that Sino-US relations are back on track. Third, the
issue that is urgent and eroding the world's intentions is that both sides
agree that appropriate steps need to be taken to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. The
second point is really important, and the key here is for the United States to
muster the political courage it needs to respect the decisions made during this
call. (Mok, A.)
This
is important because the ultimate future of what happens in Ukraine depends on
both China and the United States. It was important for President Biden to
contact President XI and tell him what the United States would do if China
actually provided more aid to Russia. Because at the moment, at least according
to US reports, Russia is running out of ammunition and even food for the
troops. Therefore, if China does not provide aid, Russia may be ready to
negotiate with the Ukrainians who have already announced that they may give up
their desire to join NATO. (Korb, L.)
Beijing’s stance:
We have to separate public opinion from the official position. Public opinion matters, but more important is the position of the government. China has been consistent with it. It has long been saying it is moving towards peaceful development. If we really understand the causes of this conflict, they are complex. But frankly, China has stated that it is a neutral, impartial, and objective participant in it and is not taking one side, which is the only effective path to a peaceful solution. (Mok, A.) Certainly, China can play a role as a neutral mediator because China has very strong trade relations with Europe which is part of this conflict and it is the only country in the world that still has influence over Russia. Interestingly, before attacking Putin went to Beijing to talk to Xi and did not do so until after the Olympics that it should not divert China's attention from the Olympics. Admittedly, the United States, its European allies, and even some Asian countries have come out against Russia, but only if China continues to help them, the conflict may be eased. (Korb, L.)
China's
position has not really changed since the conflict began. The drama experienced by the Ukrainian people has always been a matter
of great concern and emphasis, and of trying to find a peaceful solution.
However, at least publicly, China stands with Russia. Of course, there is a
dilemma between China and its economic interests or political interests because
if it gives priority to economic interests then obviously it will try to
negotiate with the West and Europe. There is a pattern in China and we have seen
this pattern during this crisis. China generally prioritizes long-term
political interests, and China is really needed at this stage of its great
strategic path, which is a partner. Russia, of course, is one of them.
Therefore, China's position has not changed significantly. (Leoni, Z.)
China’s
trade relations:
Let's
take a look at China's economic relations with some of the key players in this
crisis. US trade with China has grown
exponentially in recent decades, and this is significant for both countries.
The United States imports more from China than any other country. In 2021,
nearly half of China's $3.3 trillion exports went to the United States and its
allies, far more than its trade with Moscow, which reached a record annual high
of more than $146 billion last year. During the same period, trade between
China and the European Union exceeded $800 billion.
China’s stance on protecting territorial integrity:
Unfortunately,
all indications are that this is likely to be resolved soon seem to be
unfounded. I don't believe it really has much of an impact on China's position
or its policy decisions. I agree that despite some positive statements or
statements from the Ukrainian ambassador, China's position has not really
changed and its economy does not play such a big role. The important thing that
China has made very clear here is that whether in Europe or in Asia, it will
not tolerate any country harming the security interests of other countries in
the region. This is a message that has been given to the United States very
clearly and firmly. (Mok, A.)
One
issue that is more important to China here is the question of Taiwan because
they see that Russia claims Ukraine as part of Russia. Just as they see Taiwan
as part of China. It goes in combination with economic interests. In fact, what we hear from the call is when Biden started
talking about Ukraine. China started talking about Taiwan. Hence, only the economy is
not significant for China. Biden made clear to Xi that with the volume of its
trade with the United States and the European Union, the economic consequences
are indeed very serious for China. What consequences will the Biden
administration be considering here, will the United States go so far as to
isolate China economically in the same way that Russia finds itself isolated
and sanctioned today. This is a really
important question. Now it's really up to China, as we say in the US, the ball
is in their court, they want to help Russia by supplying ammunition or it is
trying to maintain its neutrality. China can play a positive role and convince
Russia that it can come forward. With this, they will recognize Russia's annexation
of Crimea and there will be more independence in the Donbas region and Ukraine will not join NATO. Russia can declare it a victory.
China’s influence on Russia:
What
we have learned from the meeting between Biden and Xi and from this crisis is
that in reality, it seems that there is an epidemiologic vacuum where
nobody can really stop child Russia. On the one hand, China is probably the
most likely player to be able to achieve something meaningful from a diplomatic
point of view that the European Union, NATO, and the United States cannot do so
independently at this time. On the other hand, this does not mean that China
has as much influence as many people think. That is why China is defensive, perhaps because it does not want to intervene directly and
then fail to have a negative impact on its influence. It may reflect, for
example, China looking like a great power that might affect only the smaller
powers, not the big ones. (Korb, L.)
US resolute to impose sanctions on China:
Russia is nowhere near as isolated as the United States or the
Western media. Let us first look at India, which has made it very clear that it
wants to establish a rupee-ruble exchange with Russia to continue its trade
with Russia. Look at the OPEC countries for which Russia has been a very
important voice in the UN Security Council. Pakistan and Iran, therefore, are
not really trying to isolate Russia as the United States is presenting.
Attempts to isolate China would have to be doubled if not threefold, difficult
because if Russia can threaten NATO and the United States with nuclear strikes, China is not only nuclear power but also an economic superpower. Hence, it
would be even more damaging for countries like the United States to try to
impose any kind of economic sanctions on China.
(Mok, A.)
Read more: Russia-Ukraine tensions: inching towards war
Ukraine war and severe implications:
China's
global view is that it wants any country to see a more just and humane order in
such power politics and the Cold War thinking, but more importantly here is the
issue of Taiwan which is at the forefront of the negotiations Between President
Biden and President Xi Jinping. Implications for the Taiwan issue is at the heart of
US-China relations because China sees it as an internal matter and others
around the world may not. But I really want to emphasize here that there is a
lot of focus on the military conflict in Ukraine. In fact, we need to focus on
where the real war is, which is economical. What if energy and food prices
double and triple? What is it going to do in Europe If the conflict continues
and energy prices double and triple? We are already seeing the initial
devastating effects of the three million refugees next winter. Food prices are
rising. Whether the European Union does not disintegrate will be severely
tested by this crisis. Many financial analysts who focus on the energy sector
say that Germany should really be closer to Russia than the United States. However, this is taboo at the moment. (Mok, A.)
This
will have a great effect. There will be serious economic consequences for
everyone involved. They are going to have economic consequences not only for
the US but also for China. It is interesting to note that Germany, which up until now had been leaning toward Russia,
has not only canceled the North Stream pipeline but has mainly provided
Ukraine with offensive equipment. In other words, Germany has ended its
post-Cold War policy and opposed World War II's policy of neutrality, and is
becoming more aggressive. (Korb, L.)
This
is a beautiful moment for the world order. The problems between the United
States and China are structural and they go beyond this crisis. We have
forgotten these issues because Ukraine is now on the front page of every
newspaper. Why an important moment for the world system. The world order is
already facing some degree of decapitation. On the one hand, the United States,
which is trying to move beyond the liberal order with Biden's better world, is
decapitating China in some areas. This is exactly what China is trying to do
with its common prosperity drive. This crisis is important because it can
accelerate this trend. So it is important for the United States to understand
and see where the partnership between China and Russia is going. Because if it persists,
there could be a significant acceleration in the couple's trend where we will
see two partially separate spheres of influence. Chinese One: looking at the
developing world and the United States, which may include countries that have
joined the sanctions against Russia-- Australia, Japan, Canada, and the European
Union. (Leoni, Z.)
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