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| Credit: Financial Times |
As Russia intensifies its war against Ukraine, US, French, Turkish and Israeli leaders are stepping up efforts to stem the tide. Is diplomacy still an opportunity to end the conflict?
Russia says its attack on Ukraine could be stopped at any moment if Kyiv agrees to its demands. These include the recognition of Crimea and the breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine as Russian territories. As the war intensifies, world leaders are stepping up their diplomatic efforts. The US Secretary of State has visited Moldova and NATO allies Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Antony Blinken hinted at further sanctions against Russia, including a ban on oil imports. He reminded President Vladimir Putin that he was paying the price for continuing the conflict. We see the ruble passing through the floor. We see that Russia's credit rating is coming basically to zero, as we call it closing its stock market. We see the expulsion of almost every leading company from Russia. At the same time, other measures have been taken, including export controls on the most important technologies that Russia needs to modernize for the future, including its defense and aerospace industries. Russia is being denied this technology in its energy sector, which will have powerful effects over time.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts are underway. French and Israeli leaders are talking to Vladimir Putin, while France’s Emmanuel Macron spent two hours on the phone on Sunday urging the Russian president to end military operations and protect Ukraine's nuclear facilities. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett paid a secret visit to Moscow on Saturday before meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin. In recent days, many world leaders have plunged their toes into deep diplomatic waters. Over the weekend, French President Emmanuel Macron made his fourth phone call to Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin since the start of the February-24-attack. The couple talked on the phone for an hour and 45 minutes on Sunday. President Macron is said to have urged Putin to uphold humanitarian law and respect the protection of Ukraine's nuclear sites. But the phone call provided more information on what President Putin is currently thinking. It took place between him and Turkish President Erdogan. Mr. Erdogan called on Putin to declare a ceasefire and sign a peace agreement to open the door to humanitarian aid, and offered Turkey as a host for talks. In response, the Kremlin says Mr. Putin said the only way out of the war was for Ukraine to lay down its arms and guarantee all of the Kremlin's demands including not only Ukraine's full military surrender but also its guarantee of neutrality that it will never become a member of NATO. Mr. Putin also wants Crimea to be recognized as part of Russia's after its annexation in 2014, and he wants to recognize the independence of these breakaway regions in the east. Mr. Putin reportedly said Russia was on track to achieve its war goals and said he hoped Ukrainian negotiators would reach a more constructive approach before the talks continue this week.
Diplomacy and Demands:
The Kremlin is interested in diplomacy, but the problem is what has happened in this recent context. Russia has made very clear demands that are unacceptable to the Ukrainian side. That is why in these diplomatic efforts, we can more or less agree on some human issues, but all the important political issues remain unresolved. They are unlikely to be resolved, as Putin wants them to be. In the case of Ukraine, it is not at all ready for a compromise. Putin had a very clear picture before him. As he noted recently, Ukraine could lose its statehood if no agreement is reached with Ukraine on our demands. Therefore, we cannot expect the military operation to end soon. (Fedorov A.)
Diplomacy will have no chance to make any progress at this particular stage. President Putin is using negotiations while in fact using military force on the ground to put pressure on the people of Ukraine so that they can get the concessions they wanted from the beginning. He is trying to put more pressure on the Ukrainian government. Probably the most important thing for this is to get the concession that Ukraine will not be a part of NATO and at the same time disarm the country altogether. (Kabalan M.) Ukraine has suffered greatly in civil as well as in military terms. In Ukraine, roads and other buildings have been damaged so much that the hostilities have escalated from where it was two to three weeks ago. A diplomatic solution is extremely difficult to reach. Anyway, the European Union is trying to find a diplomatic solution with all the sanctions, but not the military. (Lannoo K.)
Is there any Carrot for Russia?
There are considerations for eliminating all imports of gas and oil, but this raises the question of how you will keep it since European countries are dependent on gas and oil and for energy imports. The dependency on gas and oil and imports for energy in European countries differs enormously. If you look only at the Baltic States, they are 100 percent dependent on Russian gas and oil. It's so hard you can't change it overnight. On the other hand, financial sanctions, mainly against the banks, against the oligarchs, will see the effects only after a few days or a few weeks or a few months when the Russian economy will get back on its feet.
Read more: Sanctions regime of the West
As far as carrots are concerned, why any carrot be offered to Moscow? What kind of concessions Europe should make to Moscow to not provoke Ukraine further. (Lannoo K.) There is no chance for any carrots, but there will be more and more mistakes. As I mentioned earlier, it is very unlikely that the military operation will be stopped because Putin has a very clear picture. He wants Zelensky and the Ukrainian government to resign. He wants a new government. He wants to change the constitution to get Ukraine out of any military bloc and for that he definitely needs a referendum. He needs what he calls the demilitarization of Ukraine which is very difficult to be offered as carrots. (Fedorov A.)
Stakeholders in the conflict:
France currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union. Before this invasion, President Macron took part in the negotiations that led to the Minsk agreement to ensure a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. Turkey has good political and economic relations with both Ukraine and Russia. Ankara called the attack unacceptable but opposed sanctions against Moscow. It also sold drones to Ukraine, angering the Kremlin. Israel also has long-standing ties with both countries. About 200,000 Jews live in Ukraine, and some have already fled to Israel as refugees. Israel relies on the Kremlin to help coordinate security in Syria. He also wants Russia's support for a tough stance against Iran's nuclear program.
Role of Israel:
It is highly unlikely that Israelis or Turks or anyone else will actually find a diplomatic solution to this crisis at this stage. Israelis are actually trying to play their part because they have good relations with both Ukraine and Russia. On the other hand, they are trying to evade the US pressure to take a more aggressive stance against Russia. Israel has a vested interest in maintaining cooperation with Russia and Syria because the Russians are actually allowing the Israelis to follow the Iranians in that country. On the other hand, Israel also has very good relations with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Some of Zelensky's close advisers actually have Israeli citizenship, and Israel is also interested in protecting Ukrainian Jews during Russia's military operation. (Kabalan M.) Israel's role is ineffective in reaching any conclusion. Although Zelensky himself is a Jew and has very good relations, the problem is that Putin does not want any mediator between himself and Ukraine. The problem is that Putin does not want to sign a peace agreement in the traditional way, but he wants to dominate Ukraine. He wants Zelensky to step down. (Fedorov A.)
Role of France:
Probably the only persuasion Macron has is that France is Europe's largest military power and that Putin only listens to power. But there is minimal support. Macron has met with Putin in recent weeks and has had no effect. We know that Putin listens to almost no one. So, I wonder why Macron is going there. What I see above is that Macron is coordinating with other European partners. But again he is not a missionary in Europe, he is a missionary in France. Thus, we need someone to go there and speak on behalf of all Europeans. (Lannoo K.) No broker can bring all these things to compromise. About Macron all his visits are completely meaningless because he can't play any serious role and also because I have been in Kyiv recently, I am aware that he is not highly respected in the Ukrainian leadership. Therefore, he is not a guy who can make any kind of agreement. (Fedorov A.)
Role of Europe:
The Europeans need to provide all possible moral support to the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian people without interfering in the war and without opening the war to become a European or world war. The war is a problem at the moment, but we all know that Ukraine has already won the communication campaign about this war. And Ukraine has done more damage to the Russian military than the Russians ever expected. Hence, once the bad news reaches Russia about how bad this war is for the Russians, it could very quickly change the picture itself for Putin. (Lannoo K.)
Role of Turkey:
Another country was supposed to be part of the European Union, but it's not. Turkey plays its card in this complex situation very closely.
Turkey can bring very little. President Putin will not accept, but a change of government in Ukraine and getting all these guarantees that this country will never be a part of NATO in the future. The Turks have a vested interest in this conflict. They do not want Russia to dominate Ukraine because if the Russians take most of the coast of the Black Sea, it will have a negative effect on Turkey's security. On the other hand, Turkey would like to maintain its working relationship with Russia, which is specially developed in Syria, but it is also competing in many other places, such as Libya and the Caucasus. Therefore, on the one hand, the Turks here are trying to maintain their relations with Russia, because they have very important economic relations with Russia. Last year, the trade balance between the two countries was actually $30 billion and is expected to increase. On the other hand, they also have deep ties with Ukraine and they are actually arming Ukraine with Turkish drones as well. (Kabalan M.) It limits the chances for Turkey to unveil any breakthrough.
Way out:
The only way I can see the personal meeting between Putin and Zelensky. This is the only way things can happen, but there are less than 20 percent chances to have this meeting. (Fedorov A.) I wonder it is going to happen because of animosity between the two. What could change the picture a bit if the Chinese take a very strong position on what is happening. However, it is improbable for them to take a position where China can manage to stir up Putin's emotions a little, which could lead to change. (Lannoo K.)
The meeting between Putin and Joe Biden could really change things. I don't think anything is going to happen between Putin and Zelensky. Putin is primarily interested in the United States and the US response to this crisis because he is now concerned that the United States could turn Ukraine into a quagmire for Russia after Afghanistan. Therefore, only a meeting between the two great powers can make any progress in this matter. (Kabalan M.)
Karel Lannoo, Chief Executive of the center for European Policy and Studies
Marwan Kabalan Head of policy analysis at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies
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