Tensions with the west will bring Russia
and China closer. Their leaders hail what they call a model of cooperation for the 21st century but the US and its allies are suspicious. So is this the start of a new cold war for global leadership?
Read: The US has a strong opponent this time: How new cold war is a bigger challenge for Uncle Sam?
The US, Europe, and their allies in the West often portray Russia and China as threats to global peace. They cite examples including Russia's troop build-up along the border with Ukraine and China's crackdown on human rights in Hong Kong and Xinyang. But Moscow and Beijing see things differently they accuse the west of destabilizing their countries by imposing sanctions and interfering in their domestic affairs. President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin pledged to cooperate on trade and security and to respect each other's interests in a recent summit.
Sino-Russian Nexus:
In a recent virtual summit and show of solidarity: the presidents of China and Russia, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, spoke for more than an hour, hailing their close ties. The world has undergone unprecedented changes and pandemics in the last century, Sino-Russian relations have withstood the test of various storms. "Deep historical traditions of friendship and mutual understanding have allowed us to take our relations to the next breakthrough level." Trade between China and Russia exceeded $115 billion this year, a new high.
The leaders pledged to increase cooperation on energy. Beijing already relies on Moscow for much of its minerals oil and natural gas. Plans for nuclear power stations are underway. They are also coordinating efforts to further space exploration and scientific innovation. Chinese analysts say their ties are stronger than ever. The two countries support each other in their core interests, for example, when it comes to China's core interests such as territorial integrity and sovereignty, development, and security. The meeting comes at a time when both countries are facing sharp criticism of their policies at home and abroad. Russia for a mass buildup of troops on its border with Ukraine, and China for an increasing military activity near Taiwan, a self-ruled island. Beijing claims as its own. "Common interests, as well as common grievances, have brought China and Russia closer together. Both face rising tensions with the US and its allies as well as accusations of human rights abuses and both have been actively supporting each other on the international stage."
The leaders are known to share a good personal bond. Several countries have declared diplomatic boycotts of Beijing's 2022 Winter Olympics but Vladimir Putin has confirmed his attendance, the only major leader to do so far.
US concern:
Officials in Washington have underscored a growing military threat from both Russia and China. Putin and Xi say they'll work more closely when it comes to security. They have done several joint exercises this year. Moscow provides Beijing with advanced weaponry including fighter jets and missile defense systems. "the US is now completely focused on great power competition after they left Afghanistan. So there's a short window of opportunity. I think that both Moscow and Beijing see before the US military kind of gears up for this great power competition and they are trying to explain that."
New Agreement and the common interests of Russia and China:
Opinion by Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London
This isn't quite a declaration of a new cold war but it is an unprecedented declaration of a cooperative agreement between Russia and China. What's that based on?
It is based on a lot of common interests that the two countries share at the moment. a) They share tensions with the United States and they want to make sure that they will prevail and not the united states. b) they share a common objective of making the world safe for authoritarianism so that the world will be safe for Putin and for Xi Jinping. c) They also share common issues, in the case of Russia, ambitions on Ukraine. And in China's case, ambitions on Taiwan. So there's a lot for them to work together and we should also not forget that Xi Jinping is reviving Marxism- Leninism as the old ideology in China which makes him much better disposed to former soviet countries that are returning to authoritarianism. Russia is one of them.
What are the Russians getting out of this?
Argument by Glenn Diesen, professor of international relations at the University of Southeast Norway and an editor at Russia in Global affairs.
They're getting a very ant what they see as an anti-hegemonic partner. So let someone come up with some alternative to help them. Their partnership spread across many areas. They want to integrate their economies. They want to coordinate their political positions and have some military cooperation. Now, obviously, what Russia will get out of it is something they have never had before because after the Cold War they were never invited to the West or made part of Europe. So instead of knocking on Europe's door for another 30 years, they effectively found an alternative. So this is the most important thing they need but it has two components: First, it's a genuine interest so they both have an interest in cooperating. Second, of course, a major component is to try to protect oneself from American pressure, both militarily and economically. Therefore, it has already been seen since the global financial crisis that both China and Russia believe that the current position of the United States is not feasible. The US trade balance keeps going down. It's dead spirals out of control. So for this reason, they've been seeking an alternative. Now the fact that the US also uses its economic instruments of power as a weapon against Russia and China only intensifies this need to cooperate further and again insulate themselves from what they see as being American economic coercion.
What the US is likely to do?
Opinion by David L. Phillips, Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights.
This is a great deal for both of those countries now separately. The US was able to exert certainly some influence over Russia perhaps less on China. But here we are now two countries getting together-- two very big countries getting together. What's the United States' position here? Can it do anything?
Let's call it what it is an axis of tyrannies. These are two countries that ignore the rule-based international order that evolved during the 20th century. They are aggressive against sovereign states. In this case, Russia is threatening Ukraine, and China is threatening Taiwan and other countries in the South and East China sea. Russia and China not are only against sovereign states but also involved in the domestically ethnic cleansing of Muslims Uyghur and Xinjiang. Russia's denial of freedom of expression and the assassination of political opponents are other typical examples. So the current challenge to the world order isn't in Iraq. It's with china and Russia ignoring the international rules-based order and aggressing against neighbors and their own citizens therein is the great challenge of our century.
View by Glenn:
It's a misrepresentation: For the first, from China's perspective, Taiwan is not a sovereign country. The whole format which China and the US have agreed on for more than 40 years now is the One-China policy and it's the US that now acting as a revisionist power seeking to chip away at the one china policy by pushing Taiwan towards secession. this is what the Chinese are reacting to saying that they will intervene if they go down that path. And the same is true here in Europe that it is Nato that's been expanding towards Ukraine. Russia has said it will only intervene if the proxy regime in Kyiv attacks Donbas which you can only do with the support of the United States. Hence, that's a very unfair representation.
Read more: Russia-Ukraine tensions: inching towards war
Question of violating international law:
However, I would agree over the violation of rules-based international order because both China and Russia insist that international law has to come first in accordance with the UN charter. Now the rules-based international order is a bit of an Orwellian concept. it doesn't, in fact, contain any rules. It suggests the US can interfere in domestic affairs; it can topple governments; it can invade as long as it's legitimized under democracy promotion and human rights. So they insist that the US has to stick to international law.
Is there an opportunity here for the west and for America to retool its way of thinking about Russia and China? There is an opportunity. Russia and China do have legitimate national interests but those interests are ill-served through aggression and through domestic human rights abuses when we speak about international law. We also think about the universal declaration of human rights. The great competition that we experience today is between the rights of states and the rights of people in those states to realize their full potential. Clearly, China and Russia are champions of sovereignty and they put states' rights ahead of the rights of individuals. These kinds of abuses will ultimately backfire and destabilize Russia and China and the US should support victims by expressing solidarity and developing policies that push back against tyranny.
We are talking Russia and china here; we're talking two very big countries with whom the US has had a tense relationship simply because it can't as easily influence as it, for example, can European Union or the UK. What are the tools at the US disposal to push back with?
Russia the way it looks can't go anywhere. The issue of Ukraine is seen as an existential threat if American weapons and Nato roll into Ukraine, that's considered unacceptable. So they won't. However, it has to be said that the first rule of economic sanctions is if it's enduring and too harsh, the one new sanction will simply learn to live without America. That's what you see now with Russia and China doing as well. So then that was what this summit was about between Putin and Xi. They're seeking a new economic architecture for the world and that would have three pillars: the first is the industries in which they're seeking cooperation. High-tech industries have to go into the fourth industrial revolution in order not to be reliant on American digital platforms and also for the Russians not to be dependent on exporting energy to the Europeans which are becoming less reliable.
China is not really worried about what the Americans are pushing at the moment in China. It has a leader who is incredibly confident in himself and in the directions of troubles that China is going to. There are good grounds to question whether the direction of trouble Xi Jinping takes china is the right one; is the good one. But he is very confident that he is right so he is not so worried about the American pushback. He is devoting resources redirecting all the capacities of the Chinese economy to counter what the Americans are doing. So the Americans really need to be much more imaginative if they are going to win this competition. It is not just a direct con confrontation between China and the United States. It is about winning the hearts and minds of the rest of the world. For Americans, to win it has to show that it is genuinely better.
Subscribe to our website and allow notifications for more in-depth analytical articles.
Read: The US has a strong opponent this time: How new cold war is a bigger challenge for Uncle Sam?
The US, Europe, and their allies in the West often portray Russia and China as threats to global peace. They cite examples including Russia's troop build-up along the border with Ukraine and China's crackdown on human rights in Hong Kong and Xinyang. But Moscow and Beijing see things differently they accuse the west of destabilizing their countries by imposing sanctions and interfering in their domestic affairs. President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin pledged to cooperate on trade and security and to respect each other's interests in a recent summit.
Sino-Russian Nexus:
In a recent virtual summit and show of solidarity: the presidents of China and Russia, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, spoke for more than an hour, hailing their close ties. The world has undergone unprecedented changes and pandemics in the last century, Sino-Russian relations have withstood the test of various storms. "Deep historical traditions of friendship and mutual understanding have allowed us to take our relations to the next breakthrough level." Trade between China and Russia exceeded $115 billion this year, a new high.
The leaders pledged to increase cooperation on energy. Beijing already relies on Moscow for much of its minerals oil and natural gas. Plans for nuclear power stations are underway. They are also coordinating efforts to further space exploration and scientific innovation. Chinese analysts say their ties are stronger than ever. The two countries support each other in their core interests, for example, when it comes to China's core interests such as territorial integrity and sovereignty, development, and security. The meeting comes at a time when both countries are facing sharp criticism of their policies at home and abroad. Russia for a mass buildup of troops on its border with Ukraine, and China for an increasing military activity near Taiwan, a self-ruled island. Beijing claims as its own. "Common interests, as well as common grievances, have brought China and Russia closer together. Both face rising tensions with the US and its allies as well as accusations of human rights abuses and both have been actively supporting each other on the international stage."
The leaders are known to share a good personal bond. Several countries have declared diplomatic boycotts of Beijing's 2022 Winter Olympics but Vladimir Putin has confirmed his attendance, the only major leader to do so far.
US concern:
Officials in Washington have underscored a growing military threat from both Russia and China. Putin and Xi say they'll work more closely when it comes to security. They have done several joint exercises this year. Moscow provides Beijing with advanced weaponry including fighter jets and missile defense systems. "the US is now completely focused on great power competition after they left Afghanistan. So there's a short window of opportunity. I think that both Moscow and Beijing see before the US military kind of gears up for this great power competition and they are trying to explain that."
New Agreement and the common interests of Russia and China:
Opinion by Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London
This isn't quite a declaration of a new cold war but it is an unprecedented declaration of a cooperative agreement between Russia and China. What's that based on?
It is based on a lot of common interests that the two countries share at the moment. a) They share tensions with the United States and they want to make sure that they will prevail and not the united states. b) they share a common objective of making the world safe for authoritarianism so that the world will be safe for Putin and for Xi Jinping. c) They also share common issues, in the case of Russia, ambitions on Ukraine. And in China's case, ambitions on Taiwan. So there's a lot for them to work together and we should also not forget that Xi Jinping is reviving Marxism- Leninism as the old ideology in China which makes him much better disposed to former soviet countries that are returning to authoritarianism. Russia is one of them.
What are the Russians getting out of this?
Argument by Glenn Diesen, professor of international relations at the University of Southeast Norway and an editor at Russia in Global affairs.
They're getting a very ant what they see as an anti-hegemonic partner. So let someone come up with some alternative to help them. Their partnership spread across many areas. They want to integrate their economies. They want to coordinate their political positions and have some military cooperation. Now, obviously, what Russia will get out of it is something they have never had before because after the Cold War they were never invited to the West or made part of Europe. So instead of knocking on Europe's door for another 30 years, they effectively found an alternative. So this is the most important thing they need but it has two components: First, it's a genuine interest so they both have an interest in cooperating. Second, of course, a major component is to try to protect oneself from American pressure, both militarily and economically. Therefore, it has already been seen since the global financial crisis that both China and Russia believe that the current position of the United States is not feasible. The US trade balance keeps going down. It's dead spirals out of control. So for this reason, they've been seeking an alternative. Now the fact that the US also uses its economic instruments of power as a weapon against Russia and China only intensifies this need to cooperate further and again insulate themselves from what they see as being American economic coercion.
What the US is likely to do?
Opinion by David L. Phillips, Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights.
This is a great deal for both of those countries now separately. The US was able to exert certainly some influence over Russia perhaps less on China. But here we are now two countries getting together-- two very big countries getting together. What's the United States' position here? Can it do anything?
Let's call it what it is an axis of tyrannies. These are two countries that ignore the rule-based international order that evolved during the 20th century. They are aggressive against sovereign states. In this case, Russia is threatening Ukraine, and China is threatening Taiwan and other countries in the South and East China sea. Russia and China not are only against sovereign states but also involved in the domestically ethnic cleansing of Muslims Uyghur and Xinjiang. Russia's denial of freedom of expression and the assassination of political opponents are other typical examples. So the current challenge to the world order isn't in Iraq. It's with china and Russia ignoring the international rules-based order and aggressing against neighbors and their own citizens therein is the great challenge of our century.
Read more: China and Taiwan: the western bloc against China?
Are China and Russia authoritarian regimes?
View by Steve Tsang:
If we are looking at China it is not the Maoist totalitarianism today. It is a new form of very strong and effective authoritarianism that uses digital technologies to give it near totalitarian control but not the old-fashioned totalitarian control. It has systematic human rights violations. So, it is a very problematic government in that sense but I don't think we should confuse by using any terms that would describe China as if it were like the Maoist era or as if it were in the standardized era.
Are China and Russia authoritarian regimes?
View by Steve Tsang:
If we are looking at China it is not the Maoist totalitarianism today. It is a new form of very strong and effective authoritarianism that uses digital technologies to give it near totalitarian control but not the old-fashioned totalitarian control. It has systematic human rights violations. So, it is a very problematic government in that sense but I don't think we should confuse by using any terms that would describe China as if it were like the Maoist era or as if it were in the standardized era.
View by Glenn:
It's a misrepresentation: For the first, from China's perspective, Taiwan is not a sovereign country. The whole format which China and the US have agreed on for more than 40 years now is the One-China policy and it's the US that now acting as a revisionist power seeking to chip away at the one china policy by pushing Taiwan towards secession. this is what the Chinese are reacting to saying that they will intervene if they go down that path. And the same is true here in Europe that it is Nato that's been expanding towards Ukraine. Russia has said it will only intervene if the proxy regime in Kyiv attacks Donbas which you can only do with the support of the United States. Hence, that's a very unfair representation.
Read more: Russia-Ukraine tensions: inching towards war
Question of violating international law:
However, I would agree over the violation of rules-based international order because both China and Russia insist that international law has to come first in accordance with the UN charter. Now the rules-based international order is a bit of an Orwellian concept. it doesn't, in fact, contain any rules. It suggests the US can interfere in domestic affairs; it can topple governments; it can invade as long as it's legitimized under democracy promotion and human rights. So they insist that the US has to stick to international law.
Is there an opportunity here for the west and for America to retool its way of thinking about Russia and China? There is an opportunity. Russia and China do have legitimate national interests but those interests are ill-served through aggression and through domestic human rights abuses when we speak about international law. We also think about the universal declaration of human rights. The great competition that we experience today is between the rights of states and the rights of people in those states to realize their full potential. Clearly, China and Russia are champions of sovereignty and they put states' rights ahead of the rights of individuals. These kinds of abuses will ultimately backfire and destabilize Russia and China and the US should support victims by expressing solidarity and developing policies that push back against tyranny.
Will the pushback approach work against China and Russia?
We are talking Russia and china here; we're talking two very big countries with whom the US has had a tense relationship simply because it can't as easily influence as it, for example, can European Union or the UK. What are the tools at the US disposal to push back with?
View by David Phillips:
There are many tools at the disposal of the US and the international community including sanctions against individuals and trade restrictions. We have the global Magnitsky Act which imposes economic and travel sanctions on corruption and human rights abusers. So there are international rules that allow the opposition to tyranny. The US needs to play by those rules it shouldn't roll over and allow tyranny to prevail. It should push back and make sure that tyranny does not win the day that rights and freedoms do prevail.
Does China fear sanctions?
Whenever there have been sanctions that put in place against China; whenever there are international tools that have been put in place against China, often china has just turned around and said we are too big this is not going to affect us. They're now even bigger with this cooperative agreement with Russia. Will they use that power responsibility? Will they now have a more sympathetic ear to the international community?
There are many tools at the disposal of the US and the international community including sanctions against individuals and trade restrictions. We have the global Magnitsky Act which imposes economic and travel sanctions on corruption and human rights abusers. So there are international rules that allow the opposition to tyranny. The US needs to play by those rules it shouldn't roll over and allow tyranny to prevail. It should push back and make sure that tyranny does not win the day that rights and freedoms do prevail.
Does China fear sanctions?
Whenever there have been sanctions that put in place against China; whenever there are international tools that have been put in place against China, often china has just turned around and said we are too big this is not going to affect us. They're now even bigger with this cooperative agreement with Russia. Will they use that power responsibility? Will they now have a more sympathetic ear to the international community?
View by Steve Tsang:
China will push back and it will push for its own way. when the Chinese talk about international rules and orders, they would like it to be the Chinese rules and Chinese order and they basically say that what Americans talk about the international rules-based order as Americans' order and American rules. So they would quite like to replace that with their own versions of it. So the more powerful they are the more they will do so. What America truly needs to do is not just pushback in that old-styled cold war. We are in a new world. We are dealing with a different kind of competition between China and Russia on the one side and the US and other democracies on the other side. We will have to prove to the rest of the world that democracies are still more beautiful than what the Chinese and the Russian models are able to present to the rest of the world in terms of their effective governance and in terms of the capacity to deal with the pandemics which the Chinese and the Russians will say that the democracies are not really doing very well at the moment.
What Russia is likely to do:
China will push back and it will push for its own way. when the Chinese talk about international rules and orders, they would like it to be the Chinese rules and Chinese order and they basically say that what Americans talk about the international rules-based order as Americans' order and American rules. So they would quite like to replace that with their own versions of it. So the more powerful they are the more they will do so. What America truly needs to do is not just pushback in that old-styled cold war. We are in a new world. We are dealing with a different kind of competition between China and Russia on the one side and the US and other democracies on the other side. We will have to prove to the rest of the world that democracies are still more beautiful than what the Chinese and the Russian models are able to present to the rest of the world in terms of their effective governance and in terms of the capacity to deal with the pandemics which the Chinese and the Russians will say that the democracies are not really doing very well at the moment.
What Russia is likely to do:
Every time the US and the West have used sanctions and other international tools against Russia. It has intensified its position. Now is Russia going to be softer because it knows it has much more power under this new agreement with China or is it going to get harder?
View by Glenn Diesen:
View by Glenn Diesen:
Russia the way it looks can't go anywhere. The issue of Ukraine is seen as an existential threat if American weapons and Nato roll into Ukraine, that's considered unacceptable. So they won't. However, it has to be said that the first rule of economic sanctions is if it's enduring and too harsh, the one new sanction will simply learn to live without America. That's what you see now with Russia and China doing as well. So then that was what this summit was about between Putin and Xi. They're seeking a new economic architecture for the world and that would have three pillars: the first is the industries in which they're seeking cooperation. High-tech industries have to go into the fourth industrial revolution in order not to be reliant on American digital platforms and also for the Russians not to be dependent on exporting energy to the Europeans which are becoming less reliable.
The second pillar would be the transportation corridors again. The Chinese have pushed trillions of dollars into this belt and road initiative to reorganize these corridors and Russia is also more modest but also developing this arctic corridor in partnership with China and as well as other initiatives.
The last would be this financial architecture which means that Russia and China should now stop using the US dollar. They should stop using US-controlled development banks. It's not using the swift payment system. Thus, it begins to slowly decouple away from this and they've been quite successful to some extent, for example, in 2015, 90pc of all trade between the Chinese and Russians was in dollars. By 2020 this was reduced in half so down to 46pc. So more pressure more sanctions the US pushes on the Russians and the Chinese, the more they will simply continue this partnership because this is an initiative to learn live without the US since it's seen as being so unreliable.
View by David Phillips:
A bunch of people in foreign affairs uses the term cold war kept coming up this is just a new cold war. Is that helpful framing for the US or do we need to say as steve sang said actually it's a new world order?
There's a fourth pillar that wasn't mentioned. the economic reliance on slave labor and the US won't buy products nor will the US corporations buy products where slave labor is practiced in production. This isn't just about the US versus Russia and China. It's about the West and the European Union and countries that believe in human rights and democracy opposing the tyrannical regimes of Russia and China. So the US has joined with the EU and other countries to push back multilaterally on the kinds of practices that we see in Russia and China. It's a scary world where tyranny and slave labor becomes routine. It is necessary for the West to oppose. We can do that diplomatically; we can do that through dialogue and consensus-building with Russia and China if they will have it. But if they don't and they persist in their ways then there's clearly going to be a cost to pay for them. The US and the west will also pay a cost.
The last would be this financial architecture which means that Russia and China should now stop using the US dollar. They should stop using US-controlled development banks. It's not using the swift payment system. Thus, it begins to slowly decouple away from this and they've been quite successful to some extent, for example, in 2015, 90pc of all trade between the Chinese and Russians was in dollars. By 2020 this was reduced in half so down to 46pc. So more pressure more sanctions the US pushes on the Russians and the Chinese, the more they will simply continue this partnership because this is an initiative to learn live without the US since it's seen as being so unreliable.
View by David Phillips:
A bunch of people in foreign affairs uses the term cold war kept coming up this is just a new cold war. Is that helpful framing for the US or do we need to say as steve sang said actually it's a new world order?
There's a fourth pillar that wasn't mentioned. the economic reliance on slave labor and the US won't buy products nor will the US corporations buy products where slave labor is practiced in production. This isn't just about the US versus Russia and China. It's about the West and the European Union and countries that believe in human rights and democracy opposing the tyrannical regimes of Russia and China. So the US has joined with the EU and other countries to push back multilaterally on the kinds of practices that we see in Russia and China. It's a scary world where tyranny and slave labor becomes routine. It is necessary for the West to oppose. We can do that diplomatically; we can do that through dialogue and consensus-building with Russia and China if they will have it. But if they don't and they persist in their ways then there's clearly going to be a cost to pay for them. The US and the west will also pay a cost.
What does that cost? Is China concerned about that cost?
China is not really worried about what the Americans are pushing at the moment in China. It has a leader who is incredibly confident in himself and in the directions of troubles that China is going to. There are good grounds to question whether the direction of trouble Xi Jinping takes china is the right one; is the good one. But he is very confident that he is right so he is not so worried about the American pushback. He is devoting resources redirecting all the capacities of the Chinese economy to counter what the Americans are doing. So the Americans really need to be much more imaginative if they are going to win this competition. It is not just a direct con confrontation between China and the United States. It is about winning the hearts and minds of the rest of the world. For Americans, to win it has to show that it is genuinely better.
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