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| Credit: DAWN |
Pakistan is ready to make peace with its neighbors including India. Prime Minister Imran Khan recently said economic diplomacy will now be the top priority of foreign affairs. It's all part of the country's new national security policy but will it work?
What is NSP?
Pakistan’s Prime Minister has launched the country's first-ever national security policy. It seeks to shift the focus away from the military to a citizen-centric framework that aims to have economic security as its core. Imran Khan says Pakistan desperately needs a strategy to ensure the security of its people and guards economic interests. Opposition parties have criticized the government for not taking their input into account when formulating the policy.
Before discussing it, first, let's take a closer look at the economic challenges that lie ahead. Pakistan has topped the list of 10 countries with the highest external debt, rising unemployment, and poverty, and the pandemic has exacerbated that pushing the nation's poverty levels to nearly 40 percent, and the government has faced steep rice in inflation. In October the Pakistani rupee dropped to a record low against the US dollar. The country has also been facing skyrocketing prices of essential commodities-- oil, gas, and wheat. Pakistan is also grappling with the economic fallout from the volatility across the border in Afghanistan after the Taliban took over last year.
What is NSP’s objective:
Looking at the non-redacted 50-page published version, the abridged version, of this new policy, big on large sweeping ideas, very short on detail. How do you make it work?
Opinion by Moeed Yusuf, national security adviser to Imran khan, the Pakistani prime minister:
Let's understand that without big ideas or sweeping ideas, you're not going to have a direction. We've had multiple sectoral policies like any other country but we were missing an umbrella. This policy tells you that this is a country that wants to move to have peace in the region, a country that's focused on economic security, on geo-economics in tandem with geostrategy by looking at development partnerships and looking at using its location, at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia, for connectivity. That's the future where Pakistan wants to go.
Now when you talk about what are you going to do to get there? There’s a whole menu of things, specific things that of course are not going to be in the public document which will be worked on set timelines to take the direction that we've laid out. But this is not a policy that says that we're going to do one part of national security ahead of the other. The real issue for Pakistan is our national resource pie is not large enough to cater adequately to our people. We are the fifth largest country in the world 220 million people so that resource pie has to increase through better economic performance; better exports; better foreign direct investment and remittances. We've got to work out that external imbalance part and then we can redistribute much more to our human welfare and to our traditional and military security. So this is going forward a paradigm shift, not in terms of moving from one area to another but getting everything in line so that everybody gains.
If it's a paradigm shift why do it only in English because both documents are composed written in English? Why not do it in Urdu the language of your country because the stakeholders in all this are the people of Pakistan and why keep so much of it secret. Just publish the whole thing so everyone can get involved in this conversation.
In this regard, the summary document has already been translated into Urdu and the larger document is also being translated and will be out because that's exactly what we want. We want a debate in the country. We want intellectual input. We want critique so that is happening. As far as why everything is not put in, no country does it. It’s a national security policy. There are certain things that actually are never made public but we haven't put out a summary of two pages. We have put out a 50-60 pages document which lays out very clearly the direction of where Pakistan is going.
Non-Inclusive policy:
Your short published version, at the moment, talks about a civil-military consensus. So you want to get people to hang on to that word that there's a broad consensus here. But the consensus didn't include the opposition politicians in the parliament. This sounds like a root and branch reinvention of the country. How can you say you've got a consensus if the opposition politicians are not involved in this?
First of all policy-making involves not only the government; not only civil-military; our provinces. Pakistan is a federal structure in terms of governance, not all provinces are governed by the ruling party in the center. In addition, the parliament has a committee on national security where such matters are heard. This policy was taken there. We made a presentation and everybody who was there gave input. So it is not correct that information is wrong. Other than that politics is politics. The opposition will say what it says. This is a document that no Pakistani government, I can guarantee you, will go back on.
Elephants in room: Afghanistan and Kashmir
Are there not two big elephants in the room that the document seems to skirt around? It's the Taliban who have taken over Afghanistan --your country shares a border-- quite a porous border in some areas of 2,640 kilometers between Pakistan and Afghanistan. That's elephant number one. Elephant number two is Kashmir and As long as you resolve or work with these two major issues and get them moving in the right direction, this idea of reinventing the country is a non-starter unless you work through those issues not skirt around them.
What is NSP?
Pakistan’s Prime Minister has launched the country's first-ever national security policy. It seeks to shift the focus away from the military to a citizen-centric framework that aims to have economic security as its core. Imran Khan says Pakistan desperately needs a strategy to ensure the security of its people and guards economic interests. Opposition parties have criticized the government for not taking their input into account when formulating the policy.
Before discussing it, first, let's take a closer look at the economic challenges that lie ahead. Pakistan has topped the list of 10 countries with the highest external debt, rising unemployment, and poverty, and the pandemic has exacerbated that pushing the nation's poverty levels to nearly 40 percent, and the government has faced steep rice in inflation. In October the Pakistani rupee dropped to a record low against the US dollar. The country has also been facing skyrocketing prices of essential commodities-- oil, gas, and wheat. Pakistan is also grappling with the economic fallout from the volatility across the border in Afghanistan after the Taliban took over last year.
What is NSP’s objective:
Looking at the non-redacted 50-page published version, the abridged version, of this new policy, big on large sweeping ideas, very short on detail. How do you make it work?
Opinion by Moeed Yusuf, national security adviser to Imran khan, the Pakistani prime minister:
Let's understand that without big ideas or sweeping ideas, you're not going to have a direction. We've had multiple sectoral policies like any other country but we were missing an umbrella. This policy tells you that this is a country that wants to move to have peace in the region, a country that's focused on economic security, on geo-economics in tandem with geostrategy by looking at development partnerships and looking at using its location, at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia, for connectivity. That's the future where Pakistan wants to go.
Now when you talk about what are you going to do to get there? There’s a whole menu of things, specific things that of course are not going to be in the public document which will be worked on set timelines to take the direction that we've laid out. But this is not a policy that says that we're going to do one part of national security ahead of the other. The real issue for Pakistan is our national resource pie is not large enough to cater adequately to our people. We are the fifth largest country in the world 220 million people so that resource pie has to increase through better economic performance; better exports; better foreign direct investment and remittances. We've got to work out that external imbalance part and then we can redistribute much more to our human welfare and to our traditional and military security. So this is going forward a paradigm shift, not in terms of moving from one area to another but getting everything in line so that everybody gains.
If it's a paradigm shift why do it only in English because both documents are composed written in English? Why not do it in Urdu the language of your country because the stakeholders in all this are the people of Pakistan and why keep so much of it secret. Just publish the whole thing so everyone can get involved in this conversation.
In this regard, the summary document has already been translated into Urdu and the larger document is also being translated and will be out because that's exactly what we want. We want a debate in the country. We want intellectual input. We want critique so that is happening. As far as why everything is not put in, no country does it. It’s a national security policy. There are certain things that actually are never made public but we haven't put out a summary of two pages. We have put out a 50-60 pages document which lays out very clearly the direction of where Pakistan is going.
Non-Inclusive policy:
Your short published version, at the moment, talks about a civil-military consensus. So you want to get people to hang on to that word that there's a broad consensus here. But the consensus didn't include the opposition politicians in the parliament. This sounds like a root and branch reinvention of the country. How can you say you've got a consensus if the opposition politicians are not involved in this?
First of all policy-making involves not only the government; not only civil-military; our provinces. Pakistan is a federal structure in terms of governance, not all provinces are governed by the ruling party in the center. In addition, the parliament has a committee on national security where such matters are heard. This policy was taken there. We made a presentation and everybody who was there gave input. So it is not correct that information is wrong. Other than that politics is politics. The opposition will say what it says. This is a document that no Pakistani government, I can guarantee you, will go back on.
Elephants in room: Afghanistan and Kashmir
Are there not two big elephants in the room that the document seems to skirt around? It's the Taliban who have taken over Afghanistan --your country shares a border-- quite a porous border in some areas of 2,640 kilometers between Pakistan and Afghanistan. That's elephant number one. Elephant number two is Kashmir and As long as you resolve or work with these two major issues and get them moving in the right direction, this idea of reinventing the country is a non-starter unless you work through those issues not skirt around them.
Opinion by Moeed Yousif:
First of all, I’m not sure we skirted around them. On Afghan, the elephant in the room is not the Taliban coming in or not. The elephant in the room, if you want to call it, is a lack of stability in Afghanistan. That's why it's very clearly stated there even in the public document that at all costs Pakistan needs and wants an Afghanistan, that's stable. That's why for years but also since the Taliban came in we've been going around to everybody in the world and saying make sure we provide enough assistance to average Afghans that the country doesn't collapse because if it collapses, Pakistan gets refugees and there's a terrorism problem as well. We don't get that kind of connectivity. We need, for our economic growth, central Asia, Eurasia et cetera. So there's no skirting around that. We need economic connectivity and we will work for that and do whatever we can and we hope that the world will do the right thing by becoming a partner in that.
As far as Kashmir is concerned, it's laid out fairly clearly. And in that case, our eastern flank, right now, is exhibiting behavior in terms of an Indian government that I don't need to say much. All of the western press and Middle Eastern press are covering it every day. The way the Indian government is approaching this extremist Hindutva ideology is what they're doing with minorities. They believe that nobody else in the region possibly has the right to exist. They’ve picked up a fight with China. Their relations with every neighbor are jaundiced right now. It can't be that the entire region has gone bonkers. The problem is that you've got a fascist regime in India. Unfortunately, the world is closed its eyes because they think it's going to become a counterweight to China. It's very unfortunate it's the largest country in South Asia but I see very bad times coming ahead for India.
Pakistan-India relations: What lie ahead for smoothening Pak-India Relations?
Opinion by Shiraz defense and strategy analyst from Islamabad:
This is indeed a problem with Pakistan's relationship. Its perception of India. And Pakistani, many of them in the establishment, military, people in politics, proudly say we are India centric and enmity with India is celebrated in Pakistan since 1948. We are stuck in a situation where this mindset that India is seen as an adversary and we want to wipe India off the world map and India wants to wipe up or destroy Pakistan. Unless this mindset and this narrative change, I don't think, a real meaningful change will occur. In this policy, which they are spinning and saying and promoting as the first-ever national policy, it could have been meaningful if Pakistan would say that India is our rival. In a healthy way, a rival could be in economics or in trade but not an enemy which we aim to destroy and the enemy wants to destroy us. So this is a problem.
Opinion by Rabia Akhtar, the director for security strategy and policy research at the University of Lahore.
War with India and Pakistan's choice?
Just to contextualize this, I do foresee, this national security policy as a paradigm shift because it puts me, as a citizen of Pakistan and an individual, at the heart of it. But while it does that it does not take anything away from the traditional threats that are facing Pakistan and India is one of them.
I don't think enmity in Pakistan is celebrated. I don't think anybody in Pakistan wants war with India because: firstly, Pakistan doesn't have the money to fight a war. given its economic situation, it could not sustain a war. We barely have money to modernize our conventional military and nuclear modernization as India continues to modernize. So right now, I don't think Pakistan has the kind of money with an external debt that's reaching 127 billion-plus. The only hope is that Pakistan's GDP growth is projected to touch a four-year high of five percent in the fiscal year which ends in June 2022. But at the same time, the reality in Pakistan is that there is heightened inflation. There is a balance of payment crisis that is dependent on external debt bailouts if Pakistan wants to stay afloat. So from my understanding is that if Pakistan re-prioritizes peace, economic security, put human security at the heart of it, that’s the only way Pakistan can redirect its resources. If it continuously lives in an environment of the geopolitical, geostrategic environment which forces it to have a border that is hostile on the eastern side and then also a western border which is unstable and fragile, it will never be able to focus and achieve the objectives that this NSP focuses on.
Is security threat really an issue for Pakistan?
Opinion by Shiraz:
Clearly, the strategic balance, the catch-all phrase that this new document uses is out of kilter. It hasn't meshed properly in so many areas; be it exports not matching imports; be it the defense expenses the country spends given the of feeling a constant threat to the country's existence. How do they rebalance that strategy? How do they rotate all these plates in a state of balance?
This feeling of insecurity is orchestrated. It's not a real threat in the meaning of it. But the public is told here for the last 70 years that we are a security state because we are under threat, particularly India wants to destroy us. I’m of the view that it’s not in the interest of India to destroy Pakistan, though India may want to keep Pakistan weaker. They want maybe low intensity. Instability in Pakistan could be in their interest but wiping of Pakistan or destroying Pakistan is not in the interest of India or any countries on the Pakistani border. So first of all we need to look into some soul searching. And when we are saying this is the first-ever national security policy, I would like to see that kind of critical thinking in such policies that yes we need to review our policies, our thinking our mindset, and our strategy.
Pakistan needs to reduce its defense expenses. We need to bring structural changes to our defense and security forces. In this document, they talk about cyberwar, electronic war, and hybrid war. They want to allocate more resources to those new areas of defense. But at the same time, they want to keep the traditional spending. So in this national security document, they could think about reducing the number of personnel.
Economic and security paradigm:
The military never goes away in any country, so this is Pakistani speaking. So it's exceptional in that case given its history. When we say there is a civil-military consensus on this national security policy, it just probably is to solve some fears that we're talking about economic security but this economic security is not going to come at the cost of state or territorial security like there is a section in this national security policy which talks about conventional threats. this is perhaps the first time that Pakistan and its national security document have talked about five domains of warfare where wars are going to be fought. In addition to land, air, and sea, there is the domain of cyber and space added to it. Pakistan is talking about increased capabilities in network centricity, battlefield awareness, electronic warfare capabilities, and other force multipliers that Pakistan will have to look at. So this is not only an economic security paradigm that is devoid or divorced from the state security paradigm.
Missing real Stakeholders:
There's something almost completely unique about Pakistan and it's the way that the people have lived for two or three generations now both internal and external threats. That is pretty unique not only in the region but in the world.
Pakistan is unique because these so-called threats are mostly perceived. People behind the closed doors they sit down and they decide and they think that we have these threats and they then they come out in the public and then they lecture the public that we have these threats are to our existence um but in in in in reality the state of Pakistan never consulted the actual stakeholders, the owners of Pakistan --the people of Pakistan. Even in this document which is presented as one as the first-ever policy where is the stake? Where is the input of Pakistani people? Where are opposition and civil society? They just said this is a civil-military balance but where are the civilians? So in fact in this document, they say about national cohesion. Cohesions means do you want to bring it by force? Do you want to bring it to impose it upon the people? National identity and national cohesion come when you engage with people. It comes when you decentralize and devolve power. In Pakistan, we have been focusing on centralizing the state and the strong center and believe a strong military can protect Pakistan. That model has failed.
With that idea of imposition security threats in mind. I've dug out a quote from Benazir Bhutto which she said this on American television not long before she was assassinated: "People left in Pakistan. They are left in Pakistan with the remnants of the Soviet-Afghan war-- trained militants, drug mafias, arms smuggling, and religious zealots."
NSP is comprehensive:
Opinion by Rabia Akhter:
The threats Pakistan faces pertaining to India is not just perceived threat. When the Indian defense minister comes out and talks about taking over AJK by force there is some reality to it. So it's not all in the head.
Coming the quotation by Benazir. She was absolutely right. In the past 20 years, we have suffered. We have lost 70,000 plus lives and we have lost 78 million dollars worth of economic worth in these years. That's the price Pakistan has paid. When my prime minister comes out and he says that this policy is about securing, I as an individual and as a citizen of Pakistan, think whether it is about securing my constitutional privileges or is it about protecting me from all forms of extremism, crime, terrorism, violence including war and gender-based violence which by the way has made its way into this NSP for the first time in the history of Pakistan. Then I will have hope about it. Hence, this is a comprehensive approach that had been missing previously. So this NSP is talking about rule of law NSP, responsive justice. It's talking about making it a Pakistan where its elite and its wealthy people don't take money out of the country and invest it in countries and banks abroad but rather make Pakistan a priority--Invest in Pakistan and make this a place worth investing in.
Short-term policy:
What's not to be hopeful about this is a policy that is from 2022 to 2026. It's only a four years’ time frame. No policy can achieve this objective at this point in time. This should not be seen from the political lenses, to say, as PTI's policy. Like Dr. Moeed Yusuf said in his opening statement this should outlive any prime minister in Pakistan because of its comprehensive nature and anybody should have no objection rather you should add more to it. There is nothing in it that you would like to take out and say no! Only because this government presented it we don't agree with it.
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