Issue of Kazakhstan: the Birth of Soviet Union

Credit: in fotoline

Calm returns to Kazakhstan after days of violent protests. The president says the situation is stable thanks to Russian -led troops. What will Moscow gain from the intervention and what happens now to the Kazakh people's calls for political change?

Kazakhstan's cities appear to be calm for now after days of violent protests triggered by high fuel prices. The issue ignited people's longstanding grievances against inequality, corruption, and lack of democracy in the former soviet state. The government called the protesters terrorists and asked a Russian -led military alliance to help stop the unrest. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev thanked Russia's Vladimir Putin for sending 2,500 soldiers. The troops are from the regional collective security treaty organization (CSTO). 

Dual authority system of Kazakhstan: 

Takayev has ordered Kazakh security forces to shoot without warning, and authorities have arrested the former head of national security on suspicion of treason. The arrest of Karim Massimov, head of the security services, is a significant development in Kazakhstan, as Massimov was an ally of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who is constitutionally the nation's leader in Kazakhstan. This kind of dual authority has probably confused many Kazakhs over the years. Since Tokayev came to power, it seems that he is finally freeing himself and his government from this old defender, because Nazarbayev is no longer in charge or chairman of the Security Council. It was an important body that advised the president on security issues. Nazarbayev is gone and his nephew has been removed from the security services. Massimov, an aide to the former president, is no longer the head of the security services. This strengthens President Takayev's grip on all aspects of power in Kazakhstan. Now he has said that the situation in the country has stabilized. Undoubtedly, it is now backed by Russia as CSTO troops - three and a half thousand foreign troops, mostly Russians - are stationed in Kazakhstan to support their government and administration. For many Kazakhs, the question now is what role will they play? How long will they last, and how credible is it to invite President Tokayev himself to this Russian-led peace mission?

The US is allowing its non-essential consulate staff to leave the city of Almaty where the largest protests took place. Secretary of state, Antony Blinken, added to global calls for calm and questioned Kazakhstan's decision to ask for Russian military help. "We are encouraging everyone to find a peaceful resolution and constructive resolution to the situation when it comes to the CSTO. We have questions about the nature of the request why it came about. We're seeking to learn more about it. It would seem to me that the Kazakh authorities and government certainly have the capacity to deal appropriately with protests to do so in a way that respects the rights of protesters while maintaining law and order. So it's not clear why they feel the need for any outside assistance," he said.

Russia’s interest in Kazakhstan:

Opinion by Theresa Fallon, in Brussels director at the center for Russia, Europe, Asia Studies (CREAS):

Russia and Kazakhstan have one of the largest borders in the world, so what happens in Kazakhstan affects what happens in Russia. But we have to ask ourselves, why did Putin act so quickly when he had this request? This is the first time CSTO has been used in this way. Kazakhstan is a huge country with significant energy problems and has adopted a multi-vector policy, which means that it is no longer just in the Russian orbit. This is a post-Soviet country for thirty years. They have had such an interesting relationship while China has made an incredible influence in Kazakhstan as well. Therefore, it is a country that is connected between the two great powers of Russia and China and is a key player in China's Belt and Road initiative. 

Leverage on Energy exports: China and Russia divergence:

The other important aspect is energy. Kazakhstan is a major energy producer. They export it to China via the pipeline, and in the heyday, in Moscow, Hodarkovsky was actually imprisoned because he dared to try to negotiate the construction of a pipeline,  An independent pipeline from Kazakhstan to China that directly thwarts Russia's monopoly on the pipelines. In the former Soviet Union, it was a red line for Putin. Khodorkovsky spent eight years in prison. So this gives Putin an incredible opportunity to seize some leverage on china's energy exports from Kazakhstan. We see Beijing's reaction because the current leader of Kazakhstan has not contacted SCO. Instead, he explicitly reached Moscow via CSTO. He sees close ties with Russia, so this is a kind of loss for China.

Opinion by Maxim A. Suchkov, a specialist on Russian Policy and Foreign Affairs at the Russian International Affairs Council:

First of all how significant a move is that?  Would he have wanted to intervene or would this intervention have been a reluctant one?

It needs to be understood what is different between policymakers and political analysts are that political analysts enjoy a more time and rather relaxed environment in which they can analyze events. While policymakers, at this top-level, have to react quickly to the unraveling events. So what we've seen and happened in Kazakhstan over since the beginning of the year was an incredibly swift wave, a surge of protest activity that spanned most of the country, at least major cities in the country and in some of the cities it got really violent. So it did raise a lot of concerns in Russia over potential prospects for what may happen in Kazakhstan. Whether the state institutions would collapse? Whether this is kind of an intra-struggle between the elites or there's some foreign involvement there? All kinds of versions I think were waiting in. When the request came from the president of Kazakhstan for the CSTO mandate to intervene on peacekeeping that was interesting in itself because the mandate that the CSTO  invoked was exactly the peacekeeping force even though it had other types of troops including anti-terrorist activities. So you, on the one hand, have the Kazakh leadership talking about foreign elements and then calling the protesters terrorists. On the other hand, you have CSTO invoking not the anti-terrorist mandate. But the presence so far has shown to be rather limited. Moscow is aware of all kinds of pitfalls and challenges that are on the way meaning that the CSTO may be seen and has already been seen by some factions, like that of in Kazakhstan, as a problem rather than a solution to the crisis. Therefore, Russia wants to proceed cautiously and does not want to take part in calling the protesters, but wants to protect the important facilities of the security infrastructure. Make sure its involvement is limited in time, so the CSTO general secretary says it could last from several days to several weeks, but it depends on the situation in the country at the discretion of the Kazakh president. So far it has been pretty cautious making sure that the country is stabilized and it does not get spilled over to neighboring regions including Russia given what my colleague previously mentioned about the big border.

Read more: US-China rivalry: Who will lead the world?

The conflict between Nazarbayev and Tokayev:

Why this situation is very complicated you need to understand that there are two events happening in Kazakhstan concurrently: mass anti-government protesters that started first but also a battle for power within the highest issue loss of power. It's the height between the clan of Nazarbayev and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev when he has the support of Russia and the CSTO organization. He started arresting the close circle of Nazarbayev, for example, today Masimov was arrested who served twice as prime minister and he's seen as a longtime associate of former president Nazarbayev. The next complication comes from the absence of alternative political figures. Compared to neighboring Kurdistan, for example, Kazakhstan does not have any opposition leaders who can guide unite protesters and negotiate with the authorities. And at the same time negotiate with Russia, for example. 

Was this move proactive or reactive?

Opinion by Theresa:

Could anybody have anticipated that all of this would have happened as quickly as it did in Kazakhstan or was the region and the world taken completely by surprise?

There have been rumblings of protests for years now and the current government has made pledges to do reforms and it's been kind of simmering around. The government hasn't made the reforms that it has promised. This was just the last straw on the camel's back when they doubled the price of fuel. It was shocking how fast it went across the entire country. We're talking about a country, the size of western Europe. So that's this happened so rapidly.  it was so serious that they had to call in Russia quickly and Russia didn't dither. They immediately came in. from the footage, it can be seen they've sent 75 military planes and carrying tanks and all sorts of serious defense equipment into the country. So the stakes are very high.

Government of Tokayev and Russia?

Opinion by Cholpon Orozobekova, director of the Bulan institutefor peace innovations:

The fact is that former President Nazarbayev is no longer in charge of the Security Council. In fact, Karim Massimov, the former head of Kazakhstan's national intelligence agency, was detained on suspicion of high treason. Does this show that there is a purge that's being conducted by president Tokayev's people to rid the political elite of the supporters of former president Nazarbayev?

Initially, ordinary people wanted the change of the regime, the only one thing they wanted to reach. But of course, in the second part, this kind of clash of clans emerged but it's really difficult to say something at this moment but it seems that there is going on a battle between two clans because Nazarbayev stepped down but he was like guiding all policy-making behind the scene and maybe it's the chance for Tokayev to get rid of the Nazarbayev. This factor also very complicated the situation and now people, public opinion, for example, was mainly against the militarization of this conflict. Initially, they wanted and continuously in this change of the regime. Now people understood the Kremlin and why this CSTO  organization is there. So Russia wants to keep Tokayev in power and military intervention turned down people's aspirations for regime change. People now are disappointed and scared and many inside and outside of Kazakhstan see the placement of foreign troops in the country as sacrificing its sovereignty. What shocked many people were surprised inside Kazakhstan also how Tokayev's government turned out to be very weak. The government failed to negotiate with its own people and take control of the situation. So now Tokayev has taken a very punitive approach calling people bandits and terrorists. 

How long will Russia stay? 

Opinion by Maxim:

U.S secretary of state Antony Blinken cautioned Kazakhstan’s government that once Russians are there, it's very difficult to get them to leave. Is Russia going to maintain its presence in Kazakhstan for a long time? 

First of all the statement that came from the US state secretary is interesting because people in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan would perhaps have to say a lot about American stating for longer than they were supposed to. The very perception if we're talking about the people of Kazakhstan of the Russian troop presence is based upon two major sources. One; the soviet interventions in Hungary in Czechoslovakia back in the heyday. Second; the Russian troop presence in the early days of the post-soviet era in Moldova and South Ossetia, in particular. What is different is that neither during the soviet time the governments of the countries that the Soviets invaded authorized, nor invite the soviet troops unlike Tokayev did. In the 1990s it was Russian-led involvement. Here even though everyone understands that CSTO is pretty much the euphemism for Russian military presence, we shouldn't entirely disregard it. Because there is a lot of political significance that it's a collective Eurasian effort to save one of the key members of the Eurasian economic union and of the Eurasian space. So that is very important that the mandate is: a) collective and b) has to be restricted in time. But obviously, it can be understood from the people's perspective why this may be a problem and it's very important for the Russians as well to make sure that they're not perceived as an occupying force and are there for very concrete, very limited missions to bring stability.

US, China, and Russia: A multipolar world:

Opinion by Theresa:

If we zoom out a bit and look at the bigger geopolitical picture, everyone's talking about an emerging bi-polarity between the US and China but Russia has shown that it can actually pull other countries-- former Soviet states-- back into its area of influence and that is what's happened here. Instead of having the multi-vector policy of China, Russia, the US which they have been handling quite well, Kazakhstan wants investment from all these players. There are American oil companies in Kazakhstan. But now it appears at these early stages that they're maybe pulled closer into the Russian orbit. 

Read more: Russia emerging power: the question of 'great power status'

We must keep in mind that of the Kazakh population. It's only about 16 million, 20 percent of that is Russian. So there's some speculation that this concentration of the Russian population in the northern part of Kazakhstan provinces is what is Putin going to ask for to keep the current government in power. And there's some speculation that Putin wants to have part of that, an oil-rich region. So this could be a brilliant move by Putin. He's been sitting back. We always talk about the marriage of convenience between China and Russia. This is a massive power but we're seeing some divisions now between Russia and China. So this bipolarity is the more complicated world now with Russia acting in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. It's almost Putin's vision to try to pull together this post-soviet influence area. We looked at the Eurasian Economic Union, which was not very attractive. Hence, Putin is now eager to do this.

Drawbacks of Russian involvement:

More specifically, what are some of the potential drawbacks when it comes to Russia’s involvement in Kazakhstan?

Maxim’s opinion:

Any crisis especially the one that Russia has been involved in is both: Challenge and An Opportunity. For Moscow right now there is a very reason and desire in the Kremlin to make sure that Russia harnesses benefits for itself in this particular situation than faces challenges. There are important lessons from what's going on in Kazakhstan for Russia's own power transition in 2024. Russia also has to make sure that's very important for the future of Kazakh-Russian relations. 

The drawbacks include a) making sure that the Russian presence is not perceived by the Gaza people as an occupying force. b) it must be mentioned that it's not just all the people in Kazakhstan who are against Tokayev and against the Russians. Many look at the Russian and CSTO  presence as a stabilizing force. So that's important for Moscow to ensure that Russia is not participating in fighting the very protesters.

Subscribe to our website and allow notifications for more in-depth analytical articles.