Credit: World in  focus



Has the new dangerous phase of the war in Yemen begun? In the second attack in a week, two missiles fired by Houthi rebels on the United Arab Emirates were defused. So can the entire Gulf region be dragged into the Yemen conflict?

The capital of the United Arab Emirates is 1,200 kilometers from the battlefields of Yemen. Despite the distance and separation from the vast territory of Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi is now the target of Houthi’s ballistic missiles. What appears to be a new front in Yemen's six-year conflict was opened when Houthi targeted Abu Dhabi. Two missiles were fired from Yemen at Al-Dafra Air Base near Abu Dhabi. They were intercepted by Emirati forces and the US Patriot Defense System, but flights at Abu Dhabi Airport were disrupted. Last week's attack near the airport killed three workers and Fuel tanks were destroyed at a petroleum depot near the UAE, part of a Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen. The Houthis have warned of further Emirati attacks, urging foreign companies to abandon the oil-rich hub and tourist destination. Coalition commanders have stepped up airstrikes in Yemen over the past week, with one attacking a prison in the province, killing at least 80 people. Iran, which supports the Houthis, is demanding talks.

"We consider the expansion of the war in Yemen worrying and we demand Saudi Arabia and the UAE take political measures with a constructive approach to end the human siege in Yemen to end the war, and establish a cease-fire in Yemen. And urge Yemenis to enter Yemen to Yemeni talks. The continuation of the situation is not and will not be to the betterment of the region or either of the countries involved in the crisis," said Hussein Amir Abdollahian— the former foreign minister of Iran.

Entrance of Gulf States:

Is this a dangerous escalation or is it a matter of homecoming chickens for the UAE, which has been at war since the partial withdrawal in 2019?

When we see that capitals and cities in the region are being attacked by missiles, it is obviously not good for the region and it leads to war in towns and it also destroys facilities and the region. The reputation of the Gulf region of being a safe region is also adversely impacted which is important for investment and tourism, etc. In this situation, the Gulf countries that intervened in this war have not been able to end it at first. The talks they started have not yielded any result. It seems that the war is now taking place out of context and out of control where the Gulf States are being attacked. So this is a very dangerous omen for the whole region.

The United States has warned that the Gulf States could become part of the war if it continues, but talks have so far yielded no results. That should have been expected.

Argument by Nabil Khoury, former US diplomat in Yemen and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East

Admittedly, I don't think the UAE can expect to play in this war directly or indirectly without being affected in any way. This latest level of fighting is about the battle of Marib, which is about the war on Yemen's natural resources. Ultimately, in any peace scenario, these resources would likely have to be distributed to all regions of Yemen. Therefore, those who are currently working on mediation should pay attention to ensuring that there is a formula for everyone to participate in these natural resources.

Argument by  Afrah Nasser, the Yemen researcher at Human Rights watch

A few people have died in Abu Dhabi, yet 4.5 million people have been displaced by the global powers. While one million people have been killed in Yemen, yet the international community has taken up arms against a handful of attacks in the Gulf. It sounds incredibly unfair.

Indeed! The recent escalation also sends a clear message that citizens are caught between two fires with a complete lack of accountability for these violations by the parties to the conflict. Citizens should never be attacked, either in Yemen, in the UAE or in Saudi Arabia, but recent tensions indicate that the parties to the conflict have no chance of civic life, civic infrastructure, and its elimination. It Shows a growing disregard for the plight of millions of civilians who have been attacked or targeted in Yemen, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. When I say the lack of accountability is that we have been in this conflict for seven years and no one has been held accountable for any of these human rights violations. The United Nations has recently scrapped the mandate of the only international impartial inquiry into documenting war crimes in Yemen. So it sends a clear message that the parties to the conflict have to continue violating and attacking civilians without any consequences. Resultantly, citizens are only paying the price for being caught between two fires.

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What do Houthi rebels want?

Argument by Abdullah Baabood, an academic and researcher focusing on the Gulf region

Often when such an escalation occurs, it is because one party is too anxious to strike a blow that is certain or at least pressures the people to negotiate. Is this what is happening now? Do the Houthis are frustrated and want to end this conflict or is it an escalation?

Of course this is a very complex war and there are very complex reasons for it. My own reading shows that both sides are now tired of this war. The Houthis were working hard because they were working hard to control Marib, an oil-rich region, and this will help them solve the economic and financial problems they are facing. Since the UAE-backed brigade that drove them out, they are resolving to escalation. I'm sure the Alliance is fed up with that too. This is a very expensive war in terms of economics and even in terms of fame and politics. everyone wants to end this war, but no one really wants to talk about the ground realities. They want to end the war on the condition that it started and it is going to be very difficult because things have changed. Also, both sides want to the forefront of the international community’s focus. The crisis in Yemen, despite the fact that it is costing the Yemenis and their human lives and destroying their country, no one cares so much given about the multitude of different crisis Whether in the region or outside the region. So it seems that the international and regional powers such as the United Nations, etc., have begun to move forward to find a solution through further negotiations. That is the only way to resolve this conflict. This is only if we can sit down and talk to all sides to end the war, because the Yemeni people have suffered so much.

Proxies in Yemen:

It is time for the war to end, but it is far from over. Yemen is still embroiled in a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. How difficult it would be to bring these two actors to a table on this particular issue when they cannot agree on many other issues outside Yemen?

Admittedly, unfortunately, no one is really tired of this war except the civilians who are the real target and the real victims of this war. Everyone else is ready and this war could go on for another 10 years. It is up to the UN and the US mediators to step up their game. Ultimately, this war is a struggle for power within Yemen to fill the vacuum left by Ali Abdullah. All sides are determined to dominate the power. These ambitions are on the rise. There is no single party in Yemen that can dominate the whole country. Ultimately, they have to share power and, if necessary, implement formula to ensure that everyone has a share in governing this country. All regional powers are intervening for their own purposes, not to help Yemen. It is the job of the major powers, especially the United States, to drive the regional players out of Yemen once and for all. (Khoury)

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Human Rights dimension:

It seems that every side in the Yemeni conflict has human rights violations. Let's see what kind of human rights violations can be seen.

There is no contradiction between these destructive policies and human rights violations. If there were any consequences or procedures for holding abusers accountable, we would see some progress politically or on the human rights front. So along with the war, you have a lot of armed conflicts between armed groups that were born out of a series of conflicts. As a result, Houthi armed groups and various other groups, ranging from Sanaa or the Saudi-led coalition and the UAE-backed Yemeni forces to the Saudi-backed Yemeni forces in the south, are committing widespread abuses against civilians. Therefore, there are issues of forced detention, arbitrary detention, enforced disappearance, starvation, and illegal attacks, whether using missiles or rackets. At the same time, you also have the support of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Although they see increasing documentation of violations by international human rights groups such as Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and reports coming from the UN Human Rights Council which show that there are widespread violations and some of them may fall under the category of war crimes in Yemen, Yet these states continue to support the parties to the conflict without regard to human life. It's really weird and frustrating. The bias is observed now from the fact that While Yemenis have been bombed for the past several years, the January 17 attack on the UAE made a widespread uproar in the international community. It only shows how the international community is under pressure and biased towards. (Nasser)

Debating the question of solution:

Is there any thought at the moment about the human rights violations in the UAE? Given the growing tensions with the UAE, is there need to stop this war. Of course the Patriot Defense Missile System is working as a defense against Houthi Attacks, For example, the UAE has succeeded in destroying incoming missiles, but this is only the tip of the iceberg.

It is true. It is very difficult to avoid such attacks. One may succeed many times over but it requires only one missile to pass through. It is a psychological effect, rather than an attack, that affects the region. When the Gulf cities that are undergoing development and they want to attract investment and tourism etc. are being attacked, this will impact on the UAE in particular, as the UAE, unlike Saudi Arabia, does not have the strategic depth that Saudi Arabia has. The leadership of the UAE will work hard to end this. Maybe as they are more involved in the war, they may have to say something they did not do before and try to end the war. Apparently they retreated at a certain point and now they are back and attacked. So maybe the UAE will now push for a reduction in tensions and more dialogue and something is happening right now. It is difficult to say what it really it is, but there are some meetings where the UAE wants to play its part in trying to resolve the dispute because there have been no talks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia in the past. Furthermore, it needs pressure by the world powers, especially the United States, the European Union, China and Russia, and the United Nations to end this war. This war has economic objectives. There are many people who have benefited from the war and who want to continue the war but the states themselves are somehow tired. It has been a costly battle for Saudi Arabia, both financially and in terms of credibility. That is why the Saudis do not want this to continue. (Abdullah)

However, there was a little optimism at the beginning of the Biden administration because of their attention and sending a special envoy to help end the war in Yemen. But now a year has passed since and nothing has been achieved. The UAE should be mobilized for peace, but I do not see them taking any steps to mediate or sue for peace. The UAE, on the other hand, is building a maritime empire that stretches from Dubai to the Horn of Africa and the Suez Canal to North Africa. And with that in mind, I don't see them all worried, that they have good defenses and that their major cities will probably be defended by any incoming rocket. Much of the balance of power has been blown up by the Arab League. It is the job of the mediator to really focus. Oman tried very hard, but Oman cannot impose anything. If both sides do not agree to come to the table, Oman can only offer ideas. At the end of the day, the major powers of the United Nations, the UN Security Council must agree and impose a solution. (Khoury)

This is the worst humanitarian crisis on earth and there is no immediate solution. It will only get worse. Yet when it comes to dealing with this conflict, the world leaders appear not only to be donor fatigue, but also political fatigue?

This is the worst humanitarian crisis in the world and at the same time. In my opinion, this is the worst political crisis in the world. Political fatigue and donor fatigue are visible. At the same time, the US administration is talking about considering the Houthis as a terrorist group that will have a serious impact on millions of civilians. Attacks on both sides cannot be justified by outward and legitimate attacks on the other side. So we really need justice here. No peace, no justice, no justice, no peace. What the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition have been able to do is because there is no consequences. Yemen desperately needs accountability. Prejudice is shameful and humiliating. The international community must condemn abusers and violators on all sides. This is the smallest thing that not only Yemenis but all citizens of the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia deserve. They need international solidarity. 

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