Energy crisis and Energy Politics: Russia's monopoly

Cartoon from NATO Review Magazine

Can Europe get rid of Russian gas? Leaders fear that if tensions with Ukraine escalate, Moscow will turn off the taps, but will these alternatives be enough to meet Europe's energy crisis?

Russia is Europe's largest source of natural gas. This is especially important for heating homes in the winter. In the past, blocking Moscow's gas flow was politically motivated, For example, when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 it blocked gas supplies. European leaders are concerned about the repetition of history as tensions over Ukraine escalate. The United States is working to help its European allies find a safe alternative. It is negotiating oil and gas supplies in North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The Emir of Qatar - the world's largest producer of liquefied natural gas or LNG - is was to meet with the US president. Washington acknowledges that diverting global gas supplies will be a major task. "There is no question that there are logistical challenges, especially in the transportation of natural gas. We know this is part of our dialogue with these companies and countries, but again these conversations are ongoing and we don't intend to fail on them."

Europe gets more than 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia, one-third of it passes through Ukraine. Moscow has already cut supplies to Europe, causing shortages and pushing prices to record levels. Russia now threatens to cut supplies if sanctions are imposed, not only on gas but also on oil and metals. Some countries are more dependent on Russia than others. For example, Germany gets more than half of its gas supply from Russia, and its dependence will increase if the German government gives final approval to the Nordstream 2 pipeline.

Will the US rescue Europe?

It's not as easy as Russia shutting down the gas pipeline and the United States coming to the rescue with lots of new natural gas. It seems much more complicated than that.

Argument by Cornelia Meyer, CEO of Meyer Resources and Oil and Gas expert:

This is much more complicated because the pipeline gas from Russia is 50 to 60 years and Europe gets only LNG gas which comes partly from the USA. Therefore, it is not so easy and for Russia, it is different from the last time around 2014 when the Crimean crisis in Ukraine occurred. Because at that time Russia was completely dependent on Europe for its energy revenue. About 30 percent of its oil now goes to China, more than 40 percent to Oceania, and the Chinese off-tech is growing in the case of gas. So while it's still 72%, it's declining. So Europe is in a very different economic and geopolitical environment to put an end to Nordstream 2.

Russia’s energy politics:

Argument by Pavel Felgenhauer, a defense military analyst:

Does Russia have the upper hand in some matters? It could actually threaten a supply shortfall but not entirely because it doesn't need the money but does it affect Europe?

Russia's official position is that Russia will not threaten or cut supplies, but if escalation increases further, there could be some fighting on the border, which would more or less effectively cut off gas technically through Ukraine. So this is a situation where the supply of Russian gas to Europe could be drastically cut, and perhaps all at once. This will be costly for everyone because although Russia is currently supplying natural gas to Afghanistan and China, It is also developing the ability to export some liquefied natural gas to the north and still the main Russian client is Europe. Of course, Russia supplies a lot of gas to its own people and some industries, but Europe is so important that you can't turn it around right now. Technically, the gas that goes to Europe can be diverted back to China or just another market that won't work. So if there is going to be a cut, everyone will try to make it very short because it would be disastrous for all parties.

Corporations and Politics:

It is not just a matter of geopolitics but it is also a geo-business. These pipelines are not only run by countries, they are run by corporations also. Many of these corporations will lose billions of dollars if gas supplies are cut. Do they have a say in what Russia might be able to do?

Argument by Ulrich Brueckner, a professor of political science at stanford university in Berlin:

I won't think too much about the influence of corporations but it is very clear that it is not only about geopolitics but also a business. The United States became the world's largest producer of liquefied natural gas in December, and the fracking industry across the country urgently needs to find new markets. So it was very difficult for everyone in the United States to understand why an ally like Germany would sign an agreement to increase its dependence on Russia when the United States is providing protection and Germany sometimes even buys gas from Russia at the time when the US announced that due to weather conditions climate Change, it will reduce the energy appetite that comes from fossil fuels.

Read more: Climate change and the question of War

Europe and the US cleavage? Why does Germany want to maintain relations with Russia?

It’s an interesting point that The US provides security to Germany but Germany is buying gas from Russia. Why is this happening?

It is true that there is a very historical relationship between Russia and Germany. German and Russian business goes beyond gas, but Germany needs gas to heat its homes. It was evident from what has happened in the last few months ago regarding rising gas prices and the resulting inflation. It was 400% to 500% higher. Thus, in that sense it is important. And yes all Germans want to be less dependent on fossil fuels but energy transfer is not going to happen overnight and let's not forget that gas is the cleanest fossil fuel and hence, this is a good transitional fuel. Moreover, it is imperative to save billions of dollars that have been invested in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Russia's dependence on Europe: Risking relations with Europe may be costly

It's not just about the West worrying about its energy supply. Russia also relies on the foreign exchange it earns from oil and gas pipelines, so it will hurt Russia as well. Of course, any break in relations with Europe would be to Russia's detriment. The European Union is Russia's largest trading partner. Although China is currently number one in terms of nations, Europe is more important as a bloc. In addition, Russia and Germany, in particular, have a lot of business relations. There are a lot of contacts at different levels Russian President Vladimir Putin is very fluent in German. He even once addressed the Bundestag in German. Russia, therefore, has always sought a special relationship with Germany, and Germany has tried so hard to make Germany the center of Russian gas supplies, possibly bypassing Ukraine. That’s why the Violent severing of these ties would be politically and financially costly.(Pavel)

Energy as a political tool and the unity of Europe:

This is not the first time we have seen energy being used as a diplomatic political weapon. This happened in the 1970s when OPEC decided not to supply oil to the West on various issues, including how much money it was receiving for its oil. So is there a lesson to be learned from such precedents? Or is it going to close its eyes again?

This is exactly what history seems to be repeating itself, as the situation in the 1970s when OPEC emerged as a cartel that not only cost energy but also energy for energy-hungry industrialized countries like Germany. There was a huge increase in political costs. Germany had a Social Democratic government, which used trade relations with Russia as a confidence-building tool to expand dialogue with its Soviet counterparts to end the Cold War and to pave the way for the Reunification of Germany and the divided continent. Now, once again, Germany has a social democratic government, and many old men are tampering with the idea that Germany must try to understand Russia's interests and try to build a bridge and be less confrontational. It has also been strongly supported by the governors of the eastern part of Germany, who also acknowledge that Russia has a point in its argument, but Germany is isolated in this context. Everyone else in Europe thinks that it would be much better if the West spoke with one voice and gave a strong signal to Russia that it would never cross the red line and never again violate international law.

Read more: The US has a strong opponent this time: How new cold war is a bigger challenge for Uncle Sam?


Question of Nord Stream 2 pipeline:

If you ask my personal opinion, rising levels make Nord Stream 2 dead. European pressure, pressure from neighboring countries, and pressure from the United States make it less likely that Germany will be able to move forward with conditions that have changed dramatically. (Brooke) However, This is a very strong statement. I don't think it's dead yet because in the end countries are dealing with democracies and if gas prices are going up too much and it will be a heat versus food anomaly. Just quickly returning to liquefied natural gas, admittedly there is nothing in the United States that could come to Europe, but Germany does not yet have enough regasification terminals to pump out all the pipeline gas coming from the East. This is the first thing. In addition, we must not forget about Qatar. Most of the Qatari gas goes to the east and China has become very large. China is becoming the largest importer of LNG after Japan and Korea. Thus, it's really difficult to say that Nordstream is dead. (Meyer)

Of course, this would be bad news for many people and maybe it's not that dead. In fact, technically it is built there if the current crisis between Russia and Western Russia over Ukraine, to which NATO finds a more or less permanent resolution, Nord Stream may be part of that resolution as a kind of bonus for Russia. So it is most likely not dead yet but there are some serious issues which is a fact. (Pavel)

Read more: Russia-Ukraine tensions: inching towards war

Question of Germany’s credibility in Europe:

If it is a bargain, one can talk about it, because it is difficult to see what other outcome Moscow may offer as a victory in the event of a confrontation. At the same time, we cannot necessarily add renewable energy to meet the energy hunger in an industrialized country like Germany. But now that we have a million Russian troops besieging Ukraine, Germany Is not ready to surrender and everyone else is looking at her. Europe's largest country that does not meet NATO's expectations and what does Ukraine expect from Germany. In the meantime, if Germany continues to do business with Russia as usual with the opening of Nordstream 2, it will become completely unreliable. (Brueckner)

Russian ambitions:

Where does Russia back down here? What if it is assured that Ukraine will not join NATO, which is an important demand? Are they withdrawing their troops at the behest of the Americans? Or is it only when a political solution to gas and oil diplomacy is presented to them? What is the way out for Russia?

This is a very complicated situation and they have a very complicated opinion in Moscow. It's not like they are all marching in one file. The Kremlin and the Kremlin administration have differing views on how to deal with the situation. President Putin is definitely final. (Pavel)

President Putin is undoubtedly the ultimate decision-maker, but he is also a moderator between various serious groups. Of course, there will be a lot of military tactics that are happening at the moment, the state of military readiness, and all the things that could result in military escalation or it won't. So it's a very complicated situation.

Germany is clearly a big part of it all. Where are they hoping this situation lands? Are they hoping it will end soon or are they in it for the long haul?

It is not a question of time. Russia's demand for assurances that NATO and the European Union will not expand further questions on the fundamental principle of the position of Western organizations. It is the self-determination of nations that can decide whether or not to join an organization. Russia can't decide whether countries should join an organization or not.


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