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In the last few years, the discussion of the Russia-China alliance has been in full swing. And it was speculated that it might emerge as the most powerful coalition of the next 21st century. This prediction seems true also. Today, the harmonization of the interests of Russia and China and the complementary nature of their military power is seen as a major threat to the current world order. By improving relations with Russia, China Is advancing and filling its gaps in military technology.
On March 23, 2021, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his
Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov joined a crucial meeting. The meeting was
held following the heated exchange between US and Chinese officials. The two
countries came together and denounced criticism by Western powers accusing
China and Russia of human rights abuses. Speaking of another alternative vision
for global governance, Sir G. said that the US-led international order does not
represent the international community at all. The meeting was nothing more than
rhetoric, as a few days later Russian troops began to gather again on the
Ukrainian border in the largest number since Moscow's annexation of Crimea in
2014. Simultaneously, China also entered the Identification zone of China.
Read: China and Taiwan: the western bloc against China?
These military moves raised concerns in Washington about how
important a Sino-Russian alliance is for the world. On the other hand, an
alternative approach is also emerging that the days of romance and high-level
cooperation between China and Russia are over.
In this article, we will talk about such a story and try to
understand why all of a sudden some analysts have started making such claims.
We will also look at the impact of such prediction on India and the United
States.
The enmity between Russia and China is not possible in the
future, especially when President Vladimir Putin pressed Beijing at the Russian
Energy Conference. But despite such hormonal public proclamations, there is
still room for irritations in China-Russia relations.
Well-known scholar Alexander Lukin hs discussed this in his
book, “China and Russia: China and Russia: The new rapprochement.” It is also
important to pay attention to these arguments because until 2018, in his book,
Alexander speaks of the great potential of Sino-Russian cooperation, but
suddenly he is now arguing the opposite. He says maybe the peak of Russian
Chinese rapprochement has probably passed. Professor Lukin specializes in
Sino-Russian relations and has served in the Soviet Foreign Ministry and at the
Soviet Embassy in China. He has always been pro-China and enjoys considerable
prestige in China as well. He has also been awarded the Hu Jintao Medal by
former Chinese President Hu Jintao for improving Sino-Russian relations. Now,
if such a person is talking about tension in Russia-China relations, then it is
necessary to pay attention to the same thing.
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Let's discuss the story of the tension in Sino-Russian
relations.
Importance of Central Asia:
The first factor is the dominance of India and China in
Central Asia. Central Asia has always been considered a sphere of influence,
not only after the rise of Russia but also before it—during the Soviet era. But
today, China is increasing its influence in the region, and perhaps Russia and
its allies do not like it. Today, Russian trade investment in the region lags
far behind compared to the Chinese trade or investment. China's Belt and Road
initiative has also overshadowed the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union in
recent years. Compared to China's economic power, Russia's vision and
protectionist Eurasian project are facing many problems today. Perhaps it is
because in June 2020, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not attend the
BRI Online Ministerial Conference in person, but sent an ambassador to attend.
This is the first time that Russia has sent an ambassador without sending a
minister to such an important meeting when Putin himself first attended the two BRI meetings.
We can also link the absence of Sergey Lavrov due to Covid.
But some scholars are considering it as a sign of Moscow's dissatisfaction with
Beijing. In addition, the growing Chinese power in Central Asia is undermining
the influence of Moscow's military establishment-- an institution that seeks to
reunite the Central Asian region after the collapse of the Soviet Union. For
many years, Moscow was considered the net security provider of Central Asia,
but now the perception is changing. Today, Beijing is not only offering weapons
and military training to Central Asian countries but is also sending Chinese troops
there. An example of this is China building a military base in Tajikistan.
Alexander says the lack of discussion by China and Tajikistan with Moscow before developing such an important base suggests that Moscow is losing influence in the region. Tajikistan has been a military ally of Russia since 1992 as a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) However, Moscow's role in Central Asia's security is still greater than that of Beijing, but it has gradually weakened.
Soft power:
It is also clear that Russia still has no opponents in
Central Asia in the matter of soft power. The biggest reason is the historical
and linguistic relationship between Russia and Central Asia. Even today,
Central Asian countries are dominated by Russian TV shows and pop culture,
while the local people hardly find a modern Chinese artist. In addition, over
the past two years, there have been more than 40 Chinese campaigns in Central
Asia that have seen anti-China sentiment among the Central Asian people. All of
these factors help maintain Russian influence. But Beijing has launched a
10-year education plan for SCO, which includes five other Central Asian
countries. According to the plan, 30,000 government scholarships will be
offered and 10,000 Confucius Institute teachers and students will be invited to
China. It seems that this approach is working. Many believe that more
beneficial than Moscow.
Climate change and melting of Arctic region:
The next factor is the emergence of the Arctic as an
important geopolitical region in the last decade and Russia's intentions
towards it. The Arctic has the potential to emerge as an important natural
resource and offer an alternative route that could help countries like China to
bypass the Strait of Malacca. But Russia shares the longest boundary with the
region and therefore considers it its home ground, so it does not want any
other power, especially the non-Arctic state like China, to be able to expand
its presence in the region. Therefore, the Russian leadership is deeply
concerned about China's interest and presence in the region.
Read: The US has a strong opponent this time: How new cold war is a bigger challenge for Uncle Sam?
Western powers leniency towards Russia:
In addition, it is possible that the strong ties between
Russia and China will come to an end because they are not natural but based on
compulsion. The compulsion was the Western sanctions on Russia following the
Crimean crisis in 2014 and the growing geopolitical tensions between China and
the United States. Further, Russia has so far not strained its relations with
countries with which China has border disputes, such as India. If Russia were a
true ally of China, Russia would not be a major arms supplier to countries like
India and Vietnam today.
US-Russia Nexus:
The second factor is that the US position against Russia is now less aggressive. She is planning to take a less aggressive stance on Russia and perhaps move it away from China. Perhaps that is why the Biden administration has suddenly turned its attention to China, calling Russia a secondary concern. The US's less aggressive stance against Russia is also reflected in the fact that the US has not reacted aggressively against India since the arrival of Russia's S400 missile system in India. Today, experts in the US say that if the US wants to compete with China, then India should be exempted from CAATSA. If the United States grants concessions to India and begins to normalize relations with Russia, Russia-China relations will clearly be affected.
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