Source: Nikkei Asia

“the United States and its allies could unite with Taiwan. Considering China as their rival, they have a shared interest to unite against China.”

Taiwan has long been the focus of global politics While there is a persistent conflict between China and the Western powers, Taiwan may unite the Western powers against China. The way in which China has emerged as an economic power in the last three decades, and the way it holds a stronghold on world politics, the US allies in the new Cold War are reluctant to go against China. Europe is a reliable ally of the United States. It also remains reluctant to take a stand against China today. But despite these facts, in the context of Taiwan, an alliance may be formed against given their mutual interests.

In this article, we will analyse what is happening in Taiwan that would allow Europe, India and the US to unite against China. Why is Taiwan so important to these countries? 

Background:

Tensions have been rising in Taiwan for the past several months. On November 9, 2021, the Global Times reported that China's military was patrolling the Taiwan Strait as combat readiness patrolling. Taiwan has been complaining for more than a year that the Chinese air force and navy are constantly building up its troops in the region. Taiwan has suffered more than 380 military insertions in the last year. It has claimed that since some past weeks, 25 Chinese jets and then 6 more jests entered Taiwan’s defence Identification Zone. Events such as the US growing relations with Taiwan, the US-China hostility, and trade war are also considered as the reasons for Chinese aggression.

China does not consider Taiwan a separate country and advocates One China policy. The United States also adheres to this policy, but it opposes China's accession to Taiwan. Chinese diplomats have been particularly active in playing a support game for their One China policy. The Chinese newspaper Global Times had threatened Australia with a missile strike if supports Taiwan and told it to stay away from Taiwan soil.

In such a situation, it is clear how serious China is about Taiwan, but the same seriousness about Taiwan is in other countries as well, so Taiwan can be an important link between these countries. Let's see how these countries can come together against China.

US interest in Taiwan:
If the world power is to unite with any aggression of China against Taiwan, then the United States will be the biggest player with which the rest of the states will try to contain China. So first let's discuss the US interests in Taiwan.

Since the withdrawal from Afghanistan, it is being said that the United States is now a declining power that does not want to get involved in world wars, especially when there is a power like China in front of it. Experts say that just as Russia has easily annexed Crimea, so too will Taiwan be an easy game for China. Realist scholar Charles Glaser even says that the United States should stay away from Taiwan because American dominance in Asia has almost ended now. Charles Glaser believes that even if the United States had to fight a war in East Asia, it would not fight for a small region like Taiwan. Rather, it should be done for countries that are more important to it, such as Japan and South Korea. Moreover, it would be easier for the United States to fight for Japan and South Korea due to geographical reasons. Owing to its large distance from the Chinese mainland, it would be very difficult for China to invade Japan and the US could give serious opposition to China. But in the case of Taiwan, it is very difficult. Charles Glaser's statement about the importance of Japan and South Korea is true, but he ignores the fact that Taiwan is necessary for the security of Japan and South Korea.



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Taiwan and Protection of US allies:
If China succeeds in annexing Taiwan, its ambitions and spirits will be even stronger, and the day will not be far off when its eyes will be on the disputed Senkaku Island disputed with Japan. China, then, may engage with Japan, an East Asian ally of the US. Therefore, in order to save Japan and South Korea, it is necessary for the United States to protect Taiwan first. Therefore, Taiwan is the first line of defence against China.

Read:The US has a strong opponent this time: How new cold war isa bigger challenge for Uncle Sam?

Taiwan: the part of the first island:
Taiwan is part of the first island consisting of the US allies like Japan, the Korean Peninsula, the Philippines, etc. The island geographically blocks China and prevents its power projection and access to the western Pacific. The first island has always been important to US security and a headache for China. If you look at the map, it will be clear that as soon as China gained access to Taiwan, this geographical advantage would be taken away from the US. China will be able to easily enter the western Pacific through the Bashi Channel--the main choke point located in the south of Taiwan. Moreover, if China does control Taiwan, it will also have access to its Taiwan Military Infrastructure such as ports, airbases. Hence, it’s not in the interest of the US to let China dominate the pacific region.

The Hegemony of US:

The United States cannot leave Taiwan's because it will tarnish its image. Taiwan and the United States have a 70-year relationship, and if the US does not stand by Taiwan, it will lose Japan and South Korea. It will also impact US interests in the ASEAN, so it is important for the US to support Taiwan if it wants to protect its allies both in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. This is the significance of Taiwan for the United States. Now let's move on to the aspect that makes Taiwan so important to the rest of the world.

Taiwan's economy:

Taiwan is not Crimea or Afghanistan and they are very different from Taiwan in terms of their economic influence. This is the factor that makes Taiwan important to the rest of the world. Although Taiwan is not a big economy like Japan and South Korea, It plays a key role in the global semiconductor supply chain. Taiwanese semiconductor company TSMC is the world's most valuable semiconductor company, controlling 50% of the global production. Even from the United States to Europe and India are relying on Taiwan for advanced chips. The way the world is facing a chip shortage after Covid19, Taiwan's geo-economic importance is increased manifold. Everything from Apple iPhones and iPads to computers, video games, automobiles, etc., are dependent on TSMC's advanced chips today. TMSC chips are well ahead of Japanese and South Korean companies. Semiconductor companies like AMD, Apple, Broadcom Marvel, and MediaTek are the customers of TSMC today.

Read: World War III: Nuclear war will take humanity by storm:

Trade relations:

Furthermore, Taiwan is the one of the largest partners of the United States in terms of trade. The GDP of a small island like Taiwan is approximately $636 billion, three times that of Pakistan. IMF says that Taiwan is the 7th largest economy. Besides China, Taiwan is also a strong player in electronic manufacturing. Taiwanese firms such as Quanta or Foxconn are today the manufacturers of the world's largest contract-based electronics and computers. If China does come and annex Taiwan, Chinese dominance in chip supply chain production will be enhanced. In the near future, China will use this economic power to gain the strategic power of countries around the world.

Significance for Europe:

Speaking of Europe, Taiwan is an important partner of Europe today. With the help of the United States, it wants to strengthen its hold in the semiconductor value chain. But as China becomes more aggressive in the Taiwan Strait, fears of a possible war begin to plague Europe especially when the outcome of the war is not certain. In such a scenario, global supply chains could have an equal impact on the entire European economy.  Hence, with active engagement with Taiwan and the USA, Europe can try to prevent a possible Chinese attack.

Summing up:

For all these reasons, Washington is on alert today and the rest of the world is expanding its engagement with Taiwan. The US has gradually increased its defense sales with Taiwan. AUKUS talks are also underway to provide nuclear submarines to Australia, while the Japanese ruling party is also increasing its defense allocation from 1% to 2% of GDP.

It is clear from all the facts that Taiwan is very important to the world's major powers, whether it is Europe or the United States. The invasion of Taiwan by China poses a threat to the geopolitical and geopolitical interests of these countries. In such a situation, the United States and its allies could unite with Taiwan. Considering China as their rival, they have a common reason to unite against China.