Changing geopolitics of Europe: Ukraine-war-driven changes

Global Lenses

Ukraine has taken a step towards joining the European Union. Leaders say Ukraine should be assigned candidate status alongside Moldova, but membership could take years. Ukrainians are ready to die from a European perspective, according to the leaders of the European Union. The executive of the 27-member bloc, along with Moldova, is proposing candidate status for Ukraine. Russia's invasion made the issue more expedient. All members of the European Union (EU) will consider the candidacy of Ukraine in a meeting to be held in Brussel. The leaders of France, Germany, and Italy say they support Ukraine's bid. Kyiv will initiate membership talks which could take years to have an effect.

The president of the European Commission has said that Kyiv's candidature has been made conditional to introduce reforms to end corruption, etc.

“In the view of the commission, Ukraine has clearly demonstrated the country's aspiration and the country's determination to live up to European values and standards. Ukraine before the war had already embarked on its way toward the European Union. For eight years now it had already been gradually moving closer to our union.” --Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called it a historic achievement. He Said:

"Now we are only one step away from fully-fledged integration into the EU. We have a positive assessment from the European Commission concerning candidate status for Ukraine and it is a historic achievement for all who work for our country. We just have to wait for the decision of the European council next week. Ukraine made everything possible for this decision to be positive.”

Russia's president says it is Ukraine's choice if it should join the European Union, but warned Kyiv may become a semi-colony.

“The EU is not a military alliance, unlike NATO. That's why we've always said our position here is consistent and clear. We have nothing against it. It's a sovereign decision of any country to join an economic alliance or not and it's up to this economic union to accept new member states or not,” said Vladimir Putin.

The process of joining the European Union:

Countries must first apply for membership in the EU Council. This is followed by an assessment of Copenhagen's criteria to meet its standards. It includes an active market economy, democracy, and the rule of law along with the acceptance of European legislation and the Euro as currency. If the commission approves, the council then starts discussions for membership that can take years. Currently, five countries possess EU candidacy status. They are Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey which has been on the list for more than 20 years.

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Membership process: 

It is more likely that Ukraine will join NATO. Denmark, one of the biggest opponents of Ukrainian accession, said it would support the Ukrainian candidacy, and so did the Netherlands. On the other hand, this is just the first step. Another step is to open the real negotiations that seem far away. There are many conditions attached to getting a membership as well. (Cleppe, P.)

Russian invasion responsible for membership?

Without the Russian invasion, its membership can no longer be imagined which can be seen in the case of the Western Balkans. Negotiations with a number of countries have been effectively stalled for years on the basis of excuses that are linked to the dynamics of reform, but the reality is that the EU is increasingly reluctant to its 'expansion policy'. Certainly, the war changed the geopolitical landscape of the European Union and many countries. (Kudzko, A.)

From Ukraine's point of view, it is important

as this recommendation came to the fore

when Ukraine was at war with Russia.

Importance for Ukraine:

This is very important for Ukraine. I just want to recall that in 2014, when the then President Yanukovych decided not to sign an association with the European Union, thousands of Ukrainians came to the roads. Since then, it has become apparent that this is important and significant for Ukraine and people are ready to give every kind of sacrifice and are willing to make to move toward Europe.

The vast majority of people wanted EU membership before the war.

Prior to the annexation of Crimea in 2014, there were doubts and suspicions about NATO membership, but there has never been any doubt about Ukraine's membership in the European Union as a strategic objective for Ukraine. (Scherba, O.)

Now it's only a recommendation.

The actual membership may take several years.

What difference does this proposal make in the current war? 

First of all, it is a moral expression of support for Ukraine. We all know that in the short term it means very little. Even in terms of money, the European Union is sending huge aid to Ukraine. Second, this is mostly a strong political signal. Although it is important for Ukraine, it is also a signal to Russia that Europe can welcome countries in the club of democracies whatever the former may be thinking of. You may consider that there is a little risk involved in it, but Russia makes it clear that it is mostly concerned about NATO membership for Ukraine, which at least has not come to light. Changes may take place on that front as well, but Russia has said it is less concerned about EU membership. As such, it is a good decision. The important thing is that if war stops and Ukraine try to improve and is being rebuilt, then it can be very difficult for Ukraine to comply with the conditions attached to membership. For that, the European countries should be very clear that Ukraine is not given false hopes. (Cleppe, P.)

False hope?

For years, we have been hearing 'don't give false hope to Ukrainians.' I hope that it will finally stop now. If Ukraine, which is courageously defending the tyrannical and insane dictator of the East, is no longer able to join the European family, then who is there? If Europe is pointing to Ukraine's corruption, then perhaps Europe needs to look at itself because Ukraine was telling Europe for years who Putin is. Europe has done away with it and has not always conducted transparent deals with Putin. In this way, Europe owes Ukraine because Ukraine has been warning the world and Europe for many years about war. Instead, Europe was giving Putin every possible finance and every possible way to prepare for war. Europe had made that war partially possible. (Scherba, O.)

President Putin says Ukraine is facing a semi-colonial threat.

He has repeatedly said that Ukraine is not an independent country on the speculation that it is controlled by Washington or the European Union. But he is saying this about many countries in Europe. He does not think that even Europe is a free continent and no country in Europe is free according to him because it is allied with the United States. Interestingly, in the case of Ukraine, Russia is trying to justify its attack through this rhetoric and denying the legitimacy of Ukraine. That is why the European Union is trying to make sure that Ukraine is in fact an independent country. Ukraine has a choice and its citizens are allowed to choose whether to choose the European route or the option to go with Russia. Putin does not like the choices Ukraine is making. (Kudzko, A.)

Is there a danger that the EU membership recommendation will strengthen Putin?

Putin is trying to make sure that whatever the West does is a dent in Ukraine's prospects. The supply of weapons to Ukraine is a denture; providing any assistance to Ukraine is a denture, but in reality, it means that the EU should not be able to provide any assistance to Ukraine, which is certainly not appropriate. The only language Putin does understand is the tone of power. He also said that if he insisted on Ukraine's military neutrality, it means Russia will agree to the former’s membership in European Union. So this is the way for the EU to call the Russian bluff again and make sure that Ukraine's candidacy is at least on the table before it even starts discussions or negotiations with Russia. 

Geography of post-war Ukraine:

I understand Ukraine's concerns about false hope and that it is often used as an excuse by European countries that are afraid to join the EU of such a large country given all its power. In fact, recently French President Macron has come up with an interesting step to think a little deeper, which is though not an alternative for EU membership, but a larger bloc that is much lighter that may serve as a 'waiting chamber' for countries that want to join the European Union. Perhaps, we already have an organization like that called the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). Therefore, Ukraine in particular should seriously consider reforming EFTA to make it a waiting chamber for the six Western Balkans and Ukraine. (Cleppe, P.)

New Soviet Union:

We should have realized long ago what was clear to Ukraine that Putin had been preparing for this war for years, if not decades. This may be the last imperialist war and he only wants to bring back the colony. It's not about Europe or NATO. He has this insane idea about the Great Russian nation, which consists of the great Russians, the small Russians i.e the Ukrainians. And white Russian, i.e. Belarus. He wants to create the new Soviet Union. This is what this war is all about. The EU perspective is almost marginal in the mind of this crazy dictator.

Once the war is over, Ukraine will have to respect reforms– the requirements

 for EU membership, such as the rule of law,

reduction of the power of oligarchs,

protection of human rights and the fight against corruption, etc.

Will it be difficult for Ukraine?

This will be a different world after the war. Everyone in Ukraine is talking about the fact that the country cannot be rebuilt after the end of the war rather they must create a new country because we must eliminate all these saints that we are fully aware of. We have to deal with them first, we need to be more tolerant in Ukraine, and more accessible to Europe and the minorities. The mood of the population is that we will fight this war first. Secondly, we will embark on these reforms and start building a new country with the help of Europe. (Scherba, O.)

How long will it take to get Ukraine into the EU?

The European Commission has already looked at it again and again and the position of the member states is that the accession process should be merit-based. Ukraine should resort to reforms. If Ukraine manages to do that instantly, it can join in a few years. The expansion is not just about Ukraine or any other candidate country, it is also about the European Union. One of the concerns is people are a little uncertain about whether they want new members, or whether the EU could absorb them. For example, if the EU continues to expand, it could be ineffective. Currently, the European Union makes most decisions by consensus. If we continue to add many members, it is not very clear whether the EU will turn out to be something dysfunctional and could move forward. But even in the discussion, we started about this special waiting chamber, there is no consensus on what it could look like and what it would mean. There is a consensus that this whole process takes a long time and there should be no concessions in waiving countries without the necessary reforms. One of the ideas that is circulating is how to make this accession step by step. For example, if Ukraine completes reforms on digital services, why Ukraine should not be allowed to become a full member of a digital market, or if some reforms are made in the energy portfolio, then let's integrate Ukraine into that domain. It will also help citizens feel that something concrete is happening all these years before Ukraine could become a full member. (Kudzko, A.)

EU could integrate with my idea of ​​ reusing EFTA and associating with countries that are not members of the EU. I think Ukrainians should appreciate that the EU is a very strong club which is dealing with a number of regulations in the European Union. There are also large-scale financial transfers within the EU. So, whether they like it or not, the fact is that many existing member states are wary of allowing newcomers to join the club. (Cleppe, P.)

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Alena Kudzko, Director GLOBSEC Policy Institute in Bratislava

Pieter Cleppe, Editor in Chief , brusselsreport.eu

Olexander Vasilyovich Scherba, the former ambassador of Ukraine to Austria