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Can Libya return to civil war? In the capital, Tripoli, two rival prime ministers are vying for power. Elections have been delayed and peace talks have made little progress.
Libyans fear the resurgence of
civil war. The two rival governments signed a ceasefire last year in 2011 to
end years of fighting following the fall of leader Muammar Gadhafi. They should
have worked together and held elections, but that did not happen. In Tobruk,
the prime minister's administration tried to establish itself in the capital,
Tripoli sparking a street fight in which at least one person was
killed and five wounded.
From the eastern city of Tobruk, Prime Minister Bashgha
tried to enter the Libyan capital. In Tripoli, militias loyal to the UN-recognized
government opened fire on his convoy. Hours of street fighting forced the
victor Bashagha and his ministers to retreat.
Bashagha says he does not regret
the occupation attempt: “Leaders in Tripoli are refusing that government
has worked to delay and undermine the election. They refused to go to the
election approved by the international community and the UN. We did not resort
to force or insults we followed a political process," he said.
His rival Abdul Hamid Dbeibah
accused Bashagha of an attempted coup.
"The eyes of the Libyans that I saw today combined fear and panic, but there was hope and challenge in them. The fear is to go back to the past to war to violence to chaos to destruction and to smoke," said Dbeibah
Libya is divided between rival powers in the East and the West. Muammar Gaddafi was deposed and killed 11 years ago after years of fighting. A ceasefire was reached in March last year as a result of UN peace talks. Opposition parties rallied and elected Bashagha the head of the National Unity Government, but divisions emerged in December when the election was postponed due to differences over candidates and the holding of votes. Two months later, the Tobruk-based parliament elected Fathi Bashagha as prime minister. Many Libyans say they want the differences to end. Meanwhile, France has called on all parties to respect the ceasefire. But unless the rival administration agrees to move forward, many Libyans fear further violence. Bashagha tried several times to take control of Tripoli but failed.
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There are three institutions in Libya: the parliament in Tobruk; the National Unity government in Tripoli, and the state council. These three institutions have created many problems for the international community and people.
Persistent political turmoil:
We have observed escalating political tensions in Libya since the first early months of Abdul Hamid Dbeiibah's government in 2021, or since the last nine months to take advantage of the chaos and uncertainty. For example, it has turned out to be very meaningful as the need to hold elections at the end of 2021 confronted with the requirement of revisiting the constitution and how the constitution should prevail over elections. All of these discussions, which have been put on the election roadmap, are the only way to restrict and delay the process, which was critical from the beginning, but could eventually take Libya to the next level. Now we are really frozen in the situation of being at the governmental transition and wider uncertainty. Many efforts, that have been made since the ceasefire reached in late October 2020, have been lost. (Colombo S.)
Two
Prime Ministers:
In 2021, the United Nations led a
political process to put an end to the instability in the country paving the
way for Abdul Hamid to take over as prime minister.
In February, this year the parliament in Tobruk decided to appoint Fathi Bashagha as prime minister.
Legitimacy of parliament's
decision:
If you consider the parliament,
which voted for Dbeibah in March last year after being elected through the
Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in Tunisia, to be legally elected and legally
empowered and that its mandate did not end, which is not correct at all, then
you have to admit that this is the same parliament that voted for Bashagha. We
have to remember one very crucial factor here the same Parliament ceased Mr. Dbeibah through the vote of confidence last September. So, he legally
became the caretaker Prime Minister until the elections in December, which did
not happen. Thus, the issue of legitimacy here really questions everyone. If
the parliament is not legal, it is illegal across the board, which means that
it is also illegal to give a vote of confidence to Dbeibah. (Fetouri M.)
What has been mentioned above is
not precise. Parliament gave a vote of confidence to the Dbeibah, but he was
not elected by parliament but by the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in Geneva.
Thus, you can withdraw the vote of confidence that you gave to the government
by Acclamation, but you cannot form a new government. This is the business of
LPDF which elected Dbeibah and Parliament. Secondly, Article 3 of the roadmap
states that the mandate of the government is extended by 18 months, provided
that elections are held on December 24, 2021, which did not take place. That is
why Dbeibah is saying with some justification that he will hand over power to
an elected government. What we need to understand is that neither Dbeibah nor
Bashagha are important here. The important thing is that we need elections so
that we can get rid of the High Council of State and Parliament which has been
in power for 10 years and is jointly responsible for 10 transitional
governments. Keeping Dbeibah in power benefits to force these two institutions
to leave power and hold elections demanded by 2.8 million people. (Elbakkoush S.)
Two different narratives in Libya:
The parliament in Tobruk is of the opinion that Fathi Bashagh has to take power. He has to oversee a draft constitution that is conducive to new elections. In Tripoli, however, people have denied that the Dbeibah will hand over power until elections are held and new legislation is enacted.
Ultimate responsibility of the
international community, especially of the United Nations:
Here are some points we know from the experience of other countries that elections are naturally divisive. Therefore, in a country like Libya, it is very difficult to consider elections as a catalyst for enabling peace. It will not work but at the same time, we cannot reach a new stage and overcome the current stalemate if we do not move towards new legitimate authorities who can really address Libya's problems. Libya's problems are not only institutional. There are obviously security issues but there are also economic issues that people are very concerned about. As far as the international community is concerned, the failure of the UN is due to multiple factors. This is partly due to the fact that the UN roadmap and the way it has been managed has undermined its legitimacy in the eyes of the Libyan people. We know that the end of July this year is also a deadline for the UN Mission in Libya mandate. So, we have no idea what will happen, then. Western players are now beginning to realize that if this mandate is not reconstituted, they will lose the international community in terms of influencing or supporting the transition of government in Libya. It is also true that it has not been very successful in the last 12 years due to the overwhelming resistance of the Libyan people. (Colombo S.)
The Tripoli-based National Unity Government has always been skeptical of any attempt by the Tobruk-based parliament to move forward. They say they are being manipulated by the most powerful man in the east, Khalifa Haftar, to orchestrate a coup and undermine the people in the west.
Reaction against Khalifa Haftar:
At the moment, everyone is waiting
for their firm position. By mid-June or after June 23, the roadmap drawn up by Stephanie Williams
last year would be over, which would mean the end of Mr. Dbeibah's government.
This is the big issue and the big question mark because what will happen
thereafter? Basically what has been happening in Libya since the 2011 foreign
military intervention is the lack of contingency plans such as Plan A and Plan
B which means that if your Plan A fails, do you have Plan B? And how to
implement it? That did not happen in 2011 because the Libyan people were
promised democracy and economic development in their country once Gaddafi and
his government came to an end. The next day they were removed, and Libya ended
where it is today. There was no Plan B. This time again there is no plan for what
will happen after Dbeibah. (Fetouri M.)
Changing political landscape:
The divide in Libya has created
some regional realignment. Egypt, the UAE, and Russia were providing support for
the east. Whereas Qatar and Turkey were providing support for the west.
As far as Emirates is concerned, it
is no longer providing the assistance it once provided. If not stopped altogether,
it is significantly reduced. I found that the UAE had known Dbeibah since the
time he was a senior government official under Gaddafi and seemed to agree with
him. Whereas Egyptians do not want an election because the election certainly
means that Aguila Saleh
will not return as head of parliament and he will be under incredible
pressure because he has always claimed that he only will recognize an elected government
in Libya. They know that a newly elected government in Libya cannot guarantee
survival. Therefore, the Egyptians are adamant in their opposition to the
election and in the support of Aguila Saleh. It was also noticed that Haftar
and Aguila were the ones who, from the very beginning, opposed Mr. Fayez al-Sarraj's government established under the Government of National Accord (GNA). Three months after the agreement was
reached in Geneva between Parliament and the State High Council and other
parties, Haftar declared that he did not recognize the government and barred Mr. Dbeibah from entering the east or south. (Elbakkoush S.)
Civil war?
There is always the possibility of another civil war. We must remember that the risk has escalated since Mr. Haftar's representative on the 5+5 Military Commission, which called for a ceasefire in 2020, has suspended his participation. The group of five not only recommended that Mr. Haftar consider suspending the ceasefire but also asked them to take steps to ensure that it no longer exists. He accused the government, as usual, of violating the terms of the ceasefire. He is partially correct in his accusation because Mr. Dbeibah, when Bashagha was elected last February, took some steps that really violated the ceasefire. (Fetouri M.)
Salah Elbakkoush, Political Analyst
Mustafa Fetouri, Journalist and Political Commentator
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