Russia at G20

 

Credit: Diplomist

The Kremlin has accused the United States of pressuring other countries to exclude Russia from the Group of 20 economies. Can Washington and its Western allies prevent President Vladimir Putin from attending this year's summit in Indonesia?

The G20 is a major international platform covering the 19 major economies of the developed and developing world and the European Union. The members of the bloc represent 85% of world production, 75% of international trade and two-thirds of the world's population. While the economic and financial policy has dominated the annual meetings. Last year, the agenda was expanded to include climate change and pandemic. China says the G20 is a forum for discussing economic issues that have rejected proposals that could prevent Russia from invading Ukraine. So, who controls the G20, and what's next for the bloc?

“We believe that this cannot be a normal business for Russia in the international institutions and in the international community.” –Jake Sulivan.

Russia's ambassador to Indonesia says President Vladimir Putin plans to travel to Bali for a summit. Lyudmila Vorobieva, Russian ambassador to Indonesia, said that it is a forum aimed at improving the economic situation and solving economic problems. Removing Russia from the forum will not help solve economic problems. The Group of 20 was formed in 1999 to bring together the world's largest industrial and developing economies to discuss economic and financial stability. The members of the global South include Argentina, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, India, and Indonesia. China has defended Moscow, saying the bloc should focus on global economic recovery from pandemic.

Wang Wenbin, Chinese foreign Ministry spokesperson said, “The G20 is the central forum for international economic cooperation that brings together the world's major economies. Russia is an important member and no member has the right to expel another country.”

The Prime Minister of Australia has said that it is too far-fetched to allow Vladimir Putin to sit down with other world leaders at the summit. “We’ve been making very clear statements and representations about our very strong concerns about the involvement of Russian the G20 this year. We want the Indonesian G20 to be a great success. We wanted to focus particularly on the challenges of our region. So we need to have people in the room that aren't invading other countries,” said Scott Morrison.

How is Russia viewing this?

The world is debating whether Russia should really attend the summit or whether it is better to ban it. So far, we have only one example of Russia being expelled from a similar organization which used to be the G8. It is not really an organization in its official sense. It's just a gathering of different countries with similar views on the economy and global governance. Russia said the same thing when it was expelled from the G8 in 2014. In fact, he is repeating the same statement that currently states that it is no official organization. Membership tickets are not issued to any country. Therefore, Russia cannot be officially banned from this event. China had expressed the same opinion and said that the G20 summit is just as a forum with the countries that participate on their own wheel. (Bochkov, D)

The Ukraine-Russia crisis has once again put Indonesia in a very difficult position. The response from the government is now neutral. She said that G20 is not a political forum. This is a forum for economic development and we want to play it as a permanent part of the G20, but of course, we cannot ignore the external reaction to Russia's presence. As President of the G20, Indonesia should not only act as a defense of Indonesia's foreign policy but also as a defender of the future of the G20 and restore confidence in multilateralism. (Suoneto, T)

Indonesia disinviting Russia:

Indonesia is in a very difficult position because whether Russia retains the invitation or withdraws it, the conflict will weigh heavily on the G20 and every multilateral gathering in the coming weeks and months, and possibly get long. trying to maintain this line is very unfortunate that somehow economic issues have nothing to do with political issues. They certainly are, that is to say, they are deeply connected. We like this idea and we have been playing with this sense of the multinational global environment for many years now where we can trade freely, this is going to be a big decision for Indonesia. If Indonesia decides to keep the invitation to Russia it will be the decision of others Whether or not they try to take collective action to stop it or just decide not to take part in it. It's basically an economic forum, but you can't separate the two in this interconnected world of globalization. Economy and politics are intertwined and if you have a question about it, just ask China. They use their economic power all over the world for political gain. Just ask Australia or Lithuania. (Shackelford, E)

Role of China and other states supporting Russia:

Of course, the majority of G20 members are from countries that are not currently in favor of what is going on between Russia and Ukraine. If we recall the G8 example, there must be a unanimous decision by all members to oust Russia. This is what happened on behalf of all the members when the G7 countries were bitter over Russia's participation. And Russia was not expelled in 2013, it was not invited to the meeting. Russia had no choice but to withdraw its goodwill from such summits. It is unlikely to happen now because at least Russia has the support of China, which has already expressed its complete disagreement with the idea of ​​Russia's return, and Russia has some other states such as India, Brazil, and South Africa, for example, India and South Africa did not vote in favor of the recent UN General Assembly resolution criticizing the Russian events in Ukraine. Rather they abstained. So what India is going to do with South Africa and Brazil is still a matter of time. (Bochkov, D)

I would just like to say that this is not a UN Security Council, neither China nor Russia has a veto here. It's a matter of invitation, and if you've got it in my account, you've got at least half of the G20 countries that will strongly oppose Russia's participation in the summit. The invitation comes from the current G20 president that is Indonesia. It will be very easy for Indonesia to make that decision. But If at least half of the G20 countries oppose it, and even if the decision is to move forward and allow Russia to come, a boycott by a large percentage of G20 countries would raise the question: What is this organization really good for? . (Shackelford, E)

US response: Meeting of NATO and US President:

This will not be the first priority, as there are many important issues ahead. I am sure it will be a matter of dialogue and of course with the announcement of Putin's intention to attend the G20 summit. That it is on the table and in the news. But I think it would be a discussion of the many different ways in which the alliances could demonstrate their position against Russia's actions in Ukraine and make it difficult for Russia to function normally. (Shackelford, E)

Of course, G20 is not an organization, but I mean that it would not be an obstacle by the way of voting against Russia by half the members of the organization against Russia's participation and this is how it works. In order to impose a complete ban on Russia, Indonesia can only, for example, suspend visas issued to Russian diplomats and members of the Russian delegation. I don't see any other possible way to stop Russia from going to this event. That is why today we see so many reports that Indonesia, under pressure from the West, has said that it should reconsider whether to invite Russia, but the Russian side has agreed to come. The ceremony and the Russian president are said to have been going to attend. Therefore, the only possible way to ban Russia from attending this forum is to physically prevent the delegation from coming to Indonesia. (Bochkov, D)

Implications:

It could really be a point here if many G20 members decide not to share the same platform with Russia. Admittedly, the WTO has expressed its intention to impose sanctions on Russia in the near future, but it will have a huge impact on the global economy and world trade. Although the Russian economy is not as large as economists suggest, Russia is a major player in the energy market, and as we have seen recently, oil and gas prices have their own way of market fluctuations. They will affect the energy security of the Republican Union. Russia's participation in this matter is really important for all countries. Russia has strong coverage and it has certainly highlighted the comprehensiveness and solidarity for this poor economic growth in the post-pandemic period. Without Russia, this would certainly be an impediment to the potential of a comprehensive economy. The political crisis will tell a different story, but it is definitely something we do not want to see in Indonesia's G20 2020. (Bochkov, D)

There are some debates going on that we should add more countries to join the G20 given many countries have enhanced their economic potential, promoted their economic growth, and so on. But the problem now is that if we talk about Ukraine and Russia, these concerns are not being raised by a high-level government or by the presidents or prime ministers of Western countries, but so far by many businesses, other parties, and stakeholders. And having other member states doesn't solve the problem of whether we should include Russia or not, but once again exposing Russia to the G20 in other ways doesn't help solve our economic problems. That is why the Indonesian government, as President of the G20, is trying to think carefully about the best solution to this crisis. It is acknowledged that Indonesia not only has political capital through its independent and active foreign policy. My advice to the government to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is that we should increase all the product capital we have and then try to solve it. Of course, the political issue is number one, but it is especially true economic effects are now inevitable in the G20. So, we have to think hard and try our best to solve it immediately.

Increasing membership of G20:

Those things should be considered and debated at this time. Apart from the question of whether it should be based on strict economic indicators or other factors such as whether you are a good player in the integrated economic, international system that we have. We have to be careful about the rapidly expanding size and the response to the situation because this is an economic institution that has a very important diplomatic role to play in negotiating these issues, but they must consider the role that other countries can play a more positive and positive role in this body. If there are countries that are creating all sorts of economic problems there, such as Russia with its current aggressive war in Ukraine, then we should consider whether these are the countries that are helping us to solve these problems. (Suoneto, T)

 

Elizabeth Shackleford, a senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a former US diplomat.

 Danil Bochkov, a fellow at the Russian International Affairs Council.

Thomas Suoneto, a foreign Policy Analyst.