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| Credit: CGTN |
The tensions between the US and China are escalating and it is becoming increasingly clear that the world may see another cold war in the near future that will reshape the international system. The world has changed drastically since the end of the Cold War. Neither the reasons for this conflict are the same nor the methods. Looking at the reasons, the US and Soviet Cold War was more or less an ideological battle between capitalism and communism. But today's Cold War is an ambition shaped to influence domestic and international politics. In today's scenario, where the US was trying its best to maintain its legitimacy, the rise of China is mounting difficulties for it every day. The purpose of our discussion is to conduct a comparison between the two Cold Wars, in which we will discuss the beginnings of our rivalries. At the same time, we will try to understand the failures of US policies against China, which have led to today's cold war in favor of China.
The first discussion begins with the factors that led to the US victory against the Soviets in the Cold War.
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Right allies:
The first factor was the right allies. During the Cold War, the USA was a market-based economy that was much more diverse than the Soviet-styled central planned economy. With this, US western allies were more powerful than the client states of the Soviet Union. The majority of the industrial power centers of the day were aligned with the US, which means that the GNP of the US or its allies was 3 times higher than that of the USSR. Taking advantage of the USSR's European presence and Soviet military offensive doctrine, the US sided with many non-communist countries. The divide and rule policy between the communist rivals played a key role in mounting pressure on the USSR, which led to the disintegration of the USSR.
Science, technology, and educational development:
Another factor was the US investment in science, technology, and education. The world's most sophisticated and technologically advanced economy was an enormous asset to the US. The US invested a major chunk of this economic growth in science, technology, and education, which gave it significant advantages over the Soviet Union. Many initiatives, such as the National Defense Education Act of 1958, not only played a role in bringing a new renaissance in scientific and engineering development but also developed appropriate policies for different regions through foreign language and cultural studies. This played a key role in winning the Cold War. Along with it, greater openness, transparency, and accountability provided the US with many important advantages. While the USSR was making progress in curbing freedom of expression. An economically inefficient state that has witnessed several catastrophic failures in the Afghan campaign or Chernobyl disaster, curbing Free speech and expression caused serious harm in the long run. This approach not only challenged the credibility of the USSR in the eyes of the international community but among its own people.
Draining the USSR resources:
Another important factor in the victory of the US was the strategy
to drain the USSR's economic resources. In the mid-1950s, the US alignment with
the major industrial powers of world war adversely impacted the productive
capacity, military power, wealth, and public legitimacy of the Soviet Union and
its clients. To counteract this, the massive spending by the USSR led to its
downfall. The USSR took costly initiatives to carry along the dependant allies against
the US which backfired. In this effort, the USSR launched an invasion of Afghanistan
which became an important factor for its collapse. In the meantime, the USSR was
forced to spend significant resources by the US for small gains, which speeded
up its disintegration. Although the US made similar efforts, it must be
understood that the US economy was stronger than the USSR and its allies were stronger
than the allies of the USSR. This strategy was a smart move from the US
perspective.
Nice countries finish first:
Among these factors, the most critical factor was nice countries finish first. The United States portrayed its image as a supporter of human rights protection and political values. The US has always treated its allies and foreign counterparts with respect. The US allies on multiple occasions challenged its planning with their actions, but the US maintained its tolerance. French President Charles de Gaulle irritated US presidents on multiple occasions, but not a single US official has publicly denounced them. US officials were aware that humiliating their partner would undermine Western Unity, which was against US interests. On the other hand, the communist world became an area of resentment and animosity. Following World War II, Marshal Tito of Yugoslavia and Joseph Stalin of the Soviet went on a rampage. Similarly, the differences between Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev and China‘s Mao were seen in the 1950s. The differences stemmed from a 1969 clash between Soviet and Chinese troops on the Ussuri River. The USSR, even, threatened China with a nuclear strike. The relationship between the two sides was also not harmonious under Warsaw Pact. These Innumerable differences gave birth to a lack of trust, conflict aims, and lack of credibility leading to the downfall of the USSR. However, this was the story of the US-Soviet war.
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| Credit: Wikipedia |
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Cold war 2.0:
But now the US is facing China, which is a totally different player than the USSR. China poses such challenges to the US that are beyond the understanding of the US strategists and there seems no solution as well.
China as a Strategic competitor: A mistake:
In this conflict, it is a serious strategic mistake for the US to consider the Chinese Communist Party as its strategic competitor. According to Sun Tzu and Carl Von Clausewitz, the oldest Rule of geopolitics is “No Thine Adversary”. Biden administration's national intelligence director Avril Haines believes that China was a threat to US security, prosperity, and many values. But if the position of China is analyzed, there is not really anything like that. China has never challenged American prosperity but has benefited from it to propel its economy. The Chinese economy was one-tenth the size of the US economy in the 1980s but surpassed the US economy in terms of purchasing power by 2014. From a Chinese point of view, if the United States were to propose an agreement today that would benefit the US economy as well as China, China would enthusiastically accept it. China has never endangered the United States with a military hit, nor challenged the US military supremacy in the Middle East beyond Chinese interests. While the US was focusing on the Middle East, China was engaged to modernize its military. In power comparison, the US has twenty times more nuclear warheads than China. The US has 11 powered aircraft carriers against China having less advanced two careers. In terms of overseas bases, the US passes 800 bases compared to China having only 3 bases. The defense budget of China is $200 billion, which is not even one-third of the US defense budget. If anyone thinks that China was a threat to America's security, this is a mistake. Chinese strategic planners are happy with the fact that the US is spending so much money on unnecessary wars and defense budgets that it could use in education, research, and development. Second, China is investing in education research and development to further drain US resources from its export-oriented economy.
China is not exporting communism:
At the same time, we need to understand that China is not in favor of exporting its communist ideology, but is rejuvenating Chinese civilization. Americans think that if China becomes the world's economic power, it will be able to export the model like America. This is another big mistake. While the United States believes that change can make anyone an American, the Chinese believe that only Chinese can become Chinese.
Question of autocracy:
In addition, the US believes that China wants other countries to be autocratic is opposite to the Chinese strategy. It does not matter to China what the political thinking of the country is. Whether it is capitalist Europe or Greece-born democracy, China does not hesitate to establish relations if they are deemed necessary for Chinese interests.
China’s supremacy:
The end of this geopolitical contest will be in economic terms and not by Aircraft carriers or nuclear weapons. The ultimate victory will favor the country that will treat 50% of its population better in economic terms. Today, China is far more advanced in this domain than the United States. Just as the United States overtook the Soviet Union during the First Cold War.
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Declining Diplomatic role of the US:
In addition, America's changing perspective in the international domain has shaped the perception of the United States around the world. A withdrawal from multilateral institutions such as the Paris climate accords, the World Health Organization, and demanding more money from allies like France and Germany have raised questions about the credibility of the US and have undermined the diplomatic activism of the US.
US losing support from its allies:
Many countries have supported the US against the Soviet Union during the Cold War, but today they want to remain neutral in the conflict between America and China. China, for example, concluded the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with Iran in March 2021. No country in the world has criticized China as expected by the United States. Although the United States and other countries are apprehensive of China's policies over the South China Sea, the Taiwan issue, the Uighur Muslims, there is hardly a real challenge when it comes to ground realities. No country has changed its relationship with China because of the Taiwan issue. Furthermore, in the case of Xinjiang Province, some Islamic countries have strongly condemned the detention of Uighur Muslims, but their economic or diplomatic relations with China have not changed. Extremist groups such as the Taliban have also become favorable partners for China today. In addition, US efforts to isolate China failed because of the Covid 19. All of this clearly indicates that China has strong support from US allies, which makes it difficult for the United States to compete with China.
These are all credible challenges for the United States to defeat China. The United States won against the Soviets because they were American strengths at the time.
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