Since the fall of the USSR in the 1990s, questions have been
raised from time to time over the status of Russia's great power. Today, in any
discussion of international politics, strategic experts, especially Western
observers, see Russia as a declining power. In a recent statement, the Biden
administration described Russia as an economy that has nothing but nuclear
weapons and oil wells. Ever since the Biden administration took office, one of
its top foreign policy priorities has been to contain China's growing power.
From its public statements, national security documents, and diplomatic
rhetoric, it is clear that Washington's focus on national security goes beyond
issues such as climate change and the Covid-19 epidemic. And it is more focused
on Beijing's growing power. So one thing is clear from this and that is that,
unlike the Cold War era, the question of dealing with Russia has taken a
backseat in US foreign policy today. This is not the first time. Ever since the
end of the Cold War, American politicians have from time to time sought to
degrade Russia and reduce its status as a superpower. In 2014, President Obama
dismissed Russia by declaring it as merely a regional power. That same year, a
Republican senator from Arizona described Russia as a gas station that claims
to be a country. Does this mean that Russia is no longer a superpower? Has the
countdown to Russia's glory really begun? In this article, we will discuss
these questions.
We will discuss all the factors that claim the downfall of
Russia, and at the same time, we will see how Russia will continue to be a
great power in the future.
Economy of Russia:
The first myth is Russia's resource-dependent economy.
Russia's economy is in a state of stagnation today, relying heavily on natural
resources and exports. Their entire system is rife with corruption, which is
controlled by dysfunctional state-owned and state-controlled enterprises. And
because of international sanctions, their access to global capital and
technology is limited. Not only that, the lack of talent, underfunding, and
bureaucratic mismanagement hinders technological innovation. For this reason,
Russia today lags far behind the United States or China in the parameters of
scientific and technological progress. Given this situation, it is important to
think that Russia will not be able to pursue an aggressive foreign policy on
the international stage any time soon due to a severe shortage of resources.
Its effect will diminish gradually. However, this data does not show the larger
picture. It highlights Russia's weaknesses and downplays its strengths.
Read: China and Russia: the possible divergence
Although today the Russian economy is in a state of
stagnation, its size and flexibility far exceed our expectations. According to
analysts, Russia’s $1.5 trillion GDP today is at the level of Italy and Texas,
but it is actually calculated on the basis market exchange rate. If you look at
it in terms of purchasing power parity, its value has reached $4.1 trillion,
making Russia the second largest economy in Europe and the sixth-largest in the
world. This suggests that the Russian economy is not as small as the
traditional wisdom portrays. And today, any country's raw GDP cannot accurately
measure its geopolitical power.
Economic rebound:
After the Crimean annexation in 2014, international
sanctions and falling oil prices had a negative impact on the Russian economy.
But since then, the government has created a budget surplus by reducing its
spending and lowering oil prices. If we talk about its foreign exchange
reserves, today it is worth $615 billion, while in 2014 it was worth about $500
billion.
The policy of substituting imports in response to international
sanctions has breathed new life into its agricultural sector. The value of
their agricultural exports has risen to $30 billion a year today. This is not
to say that after the sanctions, Kremlin has shifted its trade from the West
towards China. Today, China is Russia's number one trading partner. It is
expected that trade with China will exceed $200 billion by 2024. And that would
be almost double the amount in 2013.
Dependence of Europe:
Russia's reliance on the oil and gas industry accounts for
about 30 to 40 percent of Russia's budget. Russia is also the main gas supplier
to the European Union. Russia produces 41% of the EU's natural gas, 27% oil,
and 47% solid fossil fuels. And that dependence has grown exponentially over
the past decade. Europe's dependence on Russia shows that Russia's great power
status is here to stay.
Read: World War III: Nuclear war will take humanity by storm:
Technological development:
Although Russia lags behind the United States in terms of
technological innovation, it is still one of the top 10 countries in the world
in terms of research and development costs. Russia has a viable technology
sector. And Russia has developed domestic versions of Facebook, Google, and
other popular online platforms that are very successful in Russia today.
Technology is already playing an important role in geopolitics. And if Russia
promotes technological innovation in the near future, it will retain its great
power status.
Myth of demographic catastrophe:
There is also a myth that Russia's democratic outlook will
severely limit its future capabilities. According to UN estimates, Russia's
population will shrink by 7 to 11 per cent by 2050, but even in the worst-case
scenario, it will be the most populous country in Europe. So it is clear that
there is no chance of any kind of demographic collapse in Russia. And we should
not forget that quality is more important than quantity of any population.
Indicators such as health, education level and labour productivity are
important. As American scholar Hal Brands puts it, if all things are equal, countries
with healthier populations make riches faster than their competitors. Although
in life expectancy and death rates, Russia lags behind the developed world,
Russia has narrowed the gap since 1990. Today, in Russia, there is a reduction
in mortality rate, an increase in life expectancy and an improvement in
fertility rate.
Russia has also seen steady improvement in the UN's Human
Development Index and the OECD's labour productivity measures until 2015.
Although growth has slowed since the recession of 2015, Russia has once again
disproved all those predictions that imagined a demographic doom in Russia at
the turn of the century.
Problem of Brain drain:
Russia's brightest minds leave the country, which is a clear
indication of the brain drain problem, but its economic impact cannot be
measured. And so he covers this gap in the form of immigrants seeking
employment from the former Soviet republic. Further, similar demographic
outlook is also seen in the US and the rest of the world.
Military strength of Russia:
Russia's military is a force that can compensate for the
country's undiversified economy, technological backwardness and lack of
political dynamics. This factor cannot be ignored. And that's a big reason why
Russia was able to compete with economies stronger than its own, such as
Britain and the United States in past. NATO may be superior on paper today, but
it still cannot stop Russia's conventional military capabilities. Today, Russia
is at its highest level of military readiness in terms of mobility or technical
capability compared to a few decades ago. Russia also has Special Forces,
machinery, and military intelligence operatives. Further, Russia has no
comparison in terms of space and cyber capabilities. A recent example of this
is the Solar Winds Bridge in which Russian hackers were accused of spying on US
government agencies.
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Russia spends about $150 billion to $180 billion a year on
defence, in terms of purchasing power parity. More than half of Russia's annual
defence budget is spent on new weapons, modernization of the old ones and
military technology research products. That's a lot more than the Western
defence expenditures. Using this vast budget, Russia's military-industrial
complex today successfully developed from hypersonic missiles to directed
energy weapons, such as lasers, electronic warfare systems, advanced
submarines, integrated air defence systems, to anti-satellite weapons such as
the next generation of weapons. Most interestingly, it managed to meet its
defence budget in spite of low oil prices and international sanctions. So one
thing is clear: Russia should be seen by the United States and its allies as a
serious competitor rather than undermining its global position.
Read:China’s hypersonic: Shifts in global power
Discussion on Putin’s turnover:
Experts say that once Putin's term ends, Russia's foreign
policy will become less aggressive. Russia’s global influence will be
negatively impacted, but these Western-centric observations have forgotten to
consider the Russian mindset, its political culture, and the real principles of
the game. The first is that Putin can stay in office legally until 2036. This
is because of the referendum that Putin passed last year.
Secondly, even if he gets out, it won't make much
difference. Putin's foreign policy enjoys widespread support from the country's
ruling elite. Unless Putin's departure replaces the entire ruling elite, key pillars of Russian foreign policy will
remain same. And this is the bedrock of foreign policy to weaken Western
domination.
Oppressive or Popular government:
Apart from this, since the fall of Russia, there has been
one of the greatest myths pertaining to the aggressive government of Russia. What is remarkable is that while
political sovereignty in the West begins with the people of the country, in
Russia the opposite approach applies. Surprisingly, the citizens of the do not
take their government as any operation but they expect their leader with a hard
mind and a heavy hand. So, portraying Russia as an oppressive government does
not make sense if the people of Russia expect so. Historically, the Russians
consider themselves as the victims of the Europeans and such worldview helps
their citizens and government to unite against external enemies. Hence,
predicting that there will be a clash between the people and government again
is a myth.
These all factors clearly show that Russia will be a major
power and will influence global politics markedly.
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