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| Img: Financial times |
Concerns of population control are inevitable in an overpopulated country like China and India. We started the discussion with India because it is estimated that India would be the most populated country in a time to come. At the global level, recent ecosystem assessment surveys have shown that the rapid growth of the human population is leading some species to extinction. According to the natural course of our planet, the rate of extinction is one per million species per year. But according to an estimate by biologist E.O Wilson, a scary reality has emerged. It has been reported that today every hour three species are reaching the threshold of extinction. Scientists say that this boom of the human population is leading to the sixth mass extinction of this planet. At the international level, however, the population explosion debate is showing an aggressive form and the discussion of the declining population is taking place.
Debate over declining population?
There is no doubt that over-consumption of natural resources by the growing population could prove to be a demographic disaster for the entire world. But recently there have been reports that fertility rates in some parts of the world are declining rapidly. In the last 12000 years, it is for the first time that the fertility rate of Homosapiens has reached a declining slope in the world. Similar developments are also taking place in India. The data of the National Family Health Survey, released on 24th November 2021, shows as if all the concerns about overpopulation in India have come to a complete halt. Several reports have revealed that the population growth rate around the world is declining. Does this mean that overpopulation is no more a global concern? In this article, we will try to answer these questions. At last, we will also try to explore the possible consequences of markedly declining fertility rate
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Declining total fertility rate (TFR):
Population scientists determine the threshold value of controlling the population, which is the total fertility rate (TFR). In common parlance, this is also called the replacement level. According to the WHO definition, if a country wants to replace its dying population, then women of every childbearing age have to produce 2.1 children. If the fertility rate of a population is higher than that of TRF, then there is an increase in population. But if its fertility rate is lower than TRF then it means that its population is declining. The ideal value of Homosapiens replacement value is 2.1. At this value, their population remains stable. According to the NFHS report, the fertility rate in India today is even lower than the replacement level of 2.1. In other words, today in India, the female is giving birth to two babies at the age of 15 to 49 years in her reproductive age. In other words, the population of India has started to decline. This phenomenon is not only confined to India but has become a global trend as discussed later in this article.
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What are important Factors?
According to experts, the main reason for this trend is the choice of Opting out. Statistics show that women who pursue studies and career goals have a low preference for marriages and production. According to 2011 statistics, the number of single women has increased by 39pc. Factors such as late marriages, fewer marriages, involvement of women in the workspace, and high cost of living in metropolitan cities are responsible for growing the number of single women. Today women around the world have better access to education, better healthcare facilities, and contraceptive measures.
Advanced conditions of women:
In addition, increasing economic opportunities for women are changing the traditionally defined role of women's families and society. Under patriarchal culture women, in many societies, have been managing both family and workplace together. To avoid this dual burden, they are now breaking old-aged norms and retreating from marriage and motherhood today. After the Covid19 pandemic, this trend is even faster. Many developed countries have made it clear to married couples that raising a child at home without caregivers and daycare services is a challenging task.
Low affordability:
In addition to today's metropolitan complex and expensive lifestyle, couples are worried about having a child. For example, because of the high cost of living, they prefer small families unless they are financially prosperous. Many people also avoid family planning. The best example is Hong Kong. Hong Kong has the most costly housing and education facilities in the world and has a direct effect on its fertility rate. The report estimates that by 2041, one-third of Hong Kong's female population will remain unmarried during childbearing age.
It is not limited to this. In its research paper, "The World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision," UN DESA predicts that the global population will grow to 8.6 billion by 2030, 9.8 billion by 2050, and 11.2 billion by the end of the century. But today that estimate is being challenged. According to the Lancet, falling fertility rates in more than half of the world's countries today have replaced the 'baby boom' with the 'baby bust'. Some examples exemplify it such as Greece's TFR has reached 1.3; Bulgaria’s reached 1.58; Hungary’s reached 1.39, Poland’s reached 1.29; Italy’s reached 1.4; South Korea’s reached 1.26 and Japan’s reached 1.48. The TFR’s of China and Brazil are 1.5 and 1.8 respectively.
Policy Shift: From child-reducing to child-bearing:
According to the latest estimates, countries like America and China are recording the lowest fertility rates in their history. According to a Washington Post study, the number of countries making efforts to increase birth rates has risen from 9pc in 1976 to 30pc today. For example, since 2016 the Polish government has provided 100 Euros per child per month; the South Korean government is giving its people tax incentives to improve its required fertility rates. Along with this, it is also providing people with better childcare, housing benefit, and special holidays for baby-making, support for in-vitro fertilization, and generous parental leaves.
As for China, it has abandoned its popular initiatives, such as the one-child policy, and is looking for ways to maintain its population growth rate. This is clear from China's revised one-child policy in 2016 with the two-child policy. And in 2021, it announced a three-child policy. But reports have not shown any significant results. However, some experts are also warning that there could be some serious consequences of this decline population around the globe.
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| Image: AA |
Impacts of declining population:
It is true that a low population will have a strain on our planet's environment and resources, but it is also true that its economic consequences could be far more severe. It is being said that the greatest impact of this population crunch can be seen on the output of world economics. The lower the fertility, the lower the productivity of the children and the productive workforce of the countries. The share of the old age population will also increase which would not be a productive population in economic terms but a burden. Obviously, this will have a negative impact on the country's output, GDP, and the global economy. According to the Lancet report, Japan's population will be halved by the end of this century. There is a severe crunch of the working population. Due to decreasing fertility rate, Japan's current population of 126.5 million is estimated to be 105.8 million by 2050. Japan will face a 16.3pc population decline in the next three decades. Ominously, this is not only happening in Japan but also in different parts of the world.
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| Image: Love to Know |
The world of old-aged:
Along with this, social consequences are also quite severe. According to a study, the number of under-five in 2017 was 681 million which will decrease to 401 million by 2100. At the same time, the number of 18-year-old plus will increase from 141 million in 2017 to 866 million in 2100. From this, it is understood that there are more old-aged people in the world than young ones. It means that the decline of the young healthy working population and aging population will be a severe restrain for the workforce of any country.
However, after this discussion, you will come to understand that as overpopulation has its own challenges, population decline also has some serious challenges. To address such long-term impacts, countries need to adopt family-friendly policies: They must provide affordable child care, flexible workspaces for mothers, better state schools, and enhanced maternity and paternity leaves.
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